For the fifth consecutive year, reports of major crime in Illinois declined in 1999, with communities in Chicago’s northwest suburbs reporting drops of more than 12 percent.
The downturn comes on the heels of steady, incremental decreases throughout most of the 1990s, and the cumulative effect is dramatic: The number of serious crimes reported in the state has dropped by more than 20 percent since its peak in 1991, even as the population grew by nearly 6 percent.
The downward trend, reflected in the newly released 1999 Illinois State Police Crime Report, appears to be part of a nationwide reduction in crime that many experts attribute to the robust economy, harsher prison sentences and the effects of community-policing strategies.
Across Illinois, reports of serious crime plummeted by almost 8 percent compared with 1998, the seventh time in the last eight years the state has experienced a decrease. Not only did reports of crime fall in each of the eight major categories, but the tally of statewide crimes last year also was the lowest since 1982, said Mark McDonald, a state police spokesman.
“It’s an indication we’re living in a safer time than a decade ago,” McDonald said. The downward trend began in 1991 and was interrupted only by a small upturn in 1994.
The declines were not universal, however. McHenry County, for example, saw reported crime increase by 11 percent from 1998 to 1999. Moreover, police and experts caution that the statewide drops in crime reports will not continue forever.
To a certain extent, crime is “a social phenomenon that ebbs and flows like everything else,” said Arthur Lurigio, chairman of the criminal justice department at Loyola University Chicago.
Despite the declines, someone reported being the victim of a serious crime somewhere in the state an average of about every minute of 1999. About 17 sexual assaults were reported each day. A vehicle was reported stolen about every 10 minutes, and about 78 people were slain each month.
In the northwest suburbs–a collection of 29 communities ranging from big to small, rural to urban, rich to firmly middle class–reports of property crimes fell 13 percent from 1998 to 1999. Violent crime was down about 2.5 percent for the year, despite small gains in robberies and sexual assaults.
The area recorded 19 murders in 1999–one less than 1998, but still far higher than 1997, when the homicide count was nine.
There were an average of 30 crimes per 1,000 people in the northwest suburbs in 1999, compared with 34 in 1998.
Elgin, the region’s most populous city, accounted for all but eight of the homicides last year, including a man who fatally stabbed his wife before being shot dead by police, a young boy gunned down in his alternative school class, and a triple homicide.
Murder “is so open for chance and possibilities,” said Elgin Lt. Scott Davis, head of major investigations for the department. “The vast majority [are] committed as crimes of passion or motives for revenge and money, and those variables are so difficult to address. I’m not quite sure that there is anything … that you can do to really make a significant impact in the area of murder.”
Elgin saw reports of other violent crimes fall. Criminal sexual assault was down 31 percent and robbery dropped 13 percent, despite gains of 3 percent and 2 percent, respectively, throughout the northwest suburbs. Also, there were about 14 percent fewer reports of assault and battery in Elgin compared with 1998, while the rest of the area recorded a 4 percent drop. Overall, Elgin had a 22 percent drop in reported crime.
Davis credits the decline to increased patrols, more targeted policing and better use of crime analysis to spot trends and cut off crime patterns before they get out of hand.
Property crimes fell in the northwest suburbs last year, and the drop represents an about-face from just a year earlier. From 1997 to 1998, three of the four property crime categories–burglary, arson and motor vehicle theft–were up by as much as 8 percent. All four categories were down in 1999, most notably burglary, which dropped an impressive 21.5 percent from 1998.
Some experts warn, however, that the numbers tell an incomplete story.
By definition, the tally does not include unreported crimes. Some victims are unwilling to come forward, perhaps out of reluctance to contend with the justice system bureaucracy, or a belief that police will be unable to solve the crime, or even the desire to spare themselves embarrassment. In particular, experts say sexual assault is widely underreported.
In areas with small numbers of reports, even a minor change can translate into a misleading jump or decline when expressed as a percentage. Perhaps Inverness, where crime is barely detectable, is most telling of how misleading the numbers can be. The town, with just under 7,000 residents and 52 reportable crimes, had an overall increase of nearly 50 percent–mostly because of 16 additional thefts. The same was true for Barrington Hills, where an increase of just 13 reported crimes bumped the overall total up nearly 35 percent.
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Conversely, Gilberts had a 50 percent drop in reported crime, which works out to be one fewer robbery, five fewer burglaries, three fewer thefts and two fewer motor vehicle thefts.
“Statistics should be viewed over time,” said Barrington Hills chief Frederick Clauser. “In the case of Barrington Hills, in that there’s very little crime at all, any change–whether up or down–would have a significant, and disproportionate, statistical effect. When you have 38 reportable incidents one year and 51 the following, we could have 38 again next year and that would be a [25 percent] drop.”
Figures can also be skewed because residents of one area may be far more likely to summon police for a given problem than those in another region. And the number of reports of crime can vary because of police policies, from starting a task force to crack down on particular offenses to presenting incorrect data.
“There have been a number of cities that have been cited for deep-sixing reports,” said Michael Maltz, a criminal justice professor at the University of Illinois at Chicago. “People cook the books in order to achieve certain goals. … They want to show less crime for the most part.”
The crime rates in fast-growing communities also can be misleading, because the true population might be larger than the population figure used by the state.
But experts say that reports of crime, as imperfect as they can be, remain a fairly accurate yardstick to compare crime by community.
Statewide, reports of robbery dropped the most, by almost 12 percent. Next came aggravated assault, which fell about 9 percent, and murder, about 8 percent. Criminal sexual assault showed a drop of about 2 percent.
Reports of property crimes also fell in Illinois. Burglary was off by nearly 12 percent from the previous year, theft by 7 percent, motor vehicle theft by about 4 percent and arson by about 3 percent.
There were exceptions to the good news in the northwest suburbs, but they were rare and had little effect on the overall results. In Arlington Heights, for instance, overall crime was down, but criminal sexual assaults more than doubled to 15 and vehicle thefts were up slightly.
In Barrington, overall crime was up 53 percent, but in a village where there were only 303 total reportable crimes, any fluctuation can look large on paper.
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– For detailed information about crime reported in individual communities, visit chicagotribune.com/go/crime on the Internet.