While reports of major crime in Illinois declined in 1999–for the fifth consecutive year– recorded crime in McHenry County increased by more than 11 percent from 1998.
The statewide downturn comes on the heels of steady, incremental decreases throughout most of the 1990s, and the cumulative effect is dramatic: The number of serious crimes reported in the state has dropped by more than 20 percent since its peak in 1991, even as the population grew by nearly 6 percent.
The downward trend, reflected in the newly released 1999 Illinois State Police Crime Report, appears to be part of a nationwide reduction in crime that many experts attribute to the robust economy, harsher prison sentences and the effects of community-policing strategies.
Yet in fast-growing McHenry County, there were noticeable increases in reports of motor vehicle theft, arson and sexual assault in 1999 compared with 1998.
McHenry County Sheriff Keith Nygren attributed the increases at least in part to population growth.
Nygren said that “you have to take into consideration that the overall numbers and increases aren’t that much when you consider that we’re a fast-growing county.”
Across Illinois, reports of serious crime plummeted by almost 8 percent compared with 1998, the seventh time in the last eight years the state has experienced a decrease.
Not only did reports of crime fall in each of the eight major categories, the tally of statewide crimes last year was the lowest since 1982, said Mark McDonald, a state police spokesman.
“It’s an indication we’re living in a safer time than a decade ago,” McDonald said.
The downward trend began in 1991 and was interrupted only by a small upturn in 1994.
Police and experts caution that the statewide drops in crime reports will not continue forever.
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To a certain extent, crime is “a social phenomenon that ebbs and flows like everything else,” said Arthur Lurigio, chairman of the criminal justice department at Loyola University Chicago.
Despite the declines, someone reported being the victim of a serious crime somewhere in the state an average of about every minute of 1999. About 17 sexual assaults were reported each day. A vehicle was reported stolen about every 10 minutes, and about 78 people were slain each month.
There were an average of about 22.9 crimes per 1,000 people in McHenry County in 1999, compared with a rate of 20.6 in 1998.
Reports of arson and of motor-vehicle theft each rose by 25 percent in the county. There were 35 cases of arson in 1999 to 28 in 1998, and there were 170 vehicles reported stolen in 1999 to 136 the year before.
Nygren said the vehicle thefts are mostly cases in which cars or trucks are stolen in the county, then driven to another area in the state and abandoned. As for arson, he said many of the cases involved garbage containers.
Some experts warn that the numbers tell an incomplete story.
By definition, the tally does not include unreported crimes. Some victims are unwilling to come forward, perhaps out of a reluctance to contend with the justice-system bureaucracy, a belief that police will be unable to solve the crime, or even the desire to spare themselves embarrassment. In particular, experts say sexual assault is widely underreported.
Reports of criminal sexual assault rose by nearly 50 percent in McHenry County compared with the year-earlier level, according to the statistics. Nygren said that the 1999 number doesn’t necessarily mean that more sexual assaults are occurring but that more victims are reporting the incidents to police.
Nygren attributed the noticeable increase in reports of sexual assaults to a three-year grant totaling $20,000 each year. The grant program, Partners in Prevention, is in its third year and has targeted younger crowds at high schools. It has helped to inform them about violence associated with relationships, including date rape, he said.
Turning Point, a domestic violence agency, goes into schools and teaches teenagers about the potential violence associated with dating and relationships, said Lou Ness, the agency’s executive director.
“There is a greater awareness, and that’s why people are probably coming forth more and reporting incidents,” she said. “We teach that `no’ means `no.'”
Unreported crimes are not the only pitfalls in the statistics. In areas with small numbers of reports, even a minor change can translate into a misleading jump or fall when expressed as a percentage.
In Crystal Lake, for example, reports of robberies increased by 200 percent from 1998 to 1999. Crystal Lake Police Chief Ron Sheleysaid the real story behind the numbers is that there were three robberies in the city compared with one in 1998.
One problem Crystal Lake was struggling with in 1999 was vehicle theft. The community experienced a 94 percent increase in motor-vehicle thefts, but the majority of the 35 vehicles that were stolen were recovered.
“We think there was one group targeting the strip malls and stealing cars,” he said.
The crime numbers in fast-growing communities can be misleading, because the true population might be larger than the population figure used by the state.
Figures can also be skewed because residents of one area may be far more likely to summon police for a given problem than those in another region. And the number of reports of crime can vary because of police policies, from starting a task force to cracking down on particular offenses to presenting incorrect data.
“There have been a number of cities that have been cited for deep-sixing reports,” said Michael Maltz, a criminal justice professor at the University of Illinois-Chicago. “People cook the books in order to achieve certain goals…. They want to show less crime, for the most part.”
But experts say that reports of crime, as imperfect as they can be, remain a fairly accurate yardstick to compare crime by community.
“Since reporting seems to be getting better and better, it’s probably a pretty good indicator of what’s been happening,” Maltz said.
Statewide, reports of robbery dropped the most, by almost 12 percent. Next came aggravated assault, which fell about 9 percent, and slayings, about 8 percent. Criminal sexual assault showed a drop of about 2 percent.
Reports of property crimes also fell in Illinois. Burglary was off by nearly 12 percent from the previous year, theft by 7 percent, motor-vehicle theft by about 4 percent and arson by about 3 percent.
In a statement, Gov. George Ryan called the statistics “welcome news” and attributed the downturns to anti-crime laws and the work of criminal-justice agencies, government officials and citizens.
In Chicago, the 641 murders reported were the fewest since the Illinois State Police began keeping track in 1972. The previous low figure on record was 661 homicides in 1988, according to the state police. The 1999 total was 61 fewer than in 1998, a drop of almost 9 percent.
Early figures from 2000 indicate that drop may be continuing. Chicago police tallied 244 slayings as of Wednesday, 48 fewer than at the same time in 1999.
Gary Slutkin, director of the Chicago Project for Violence Prevention, said the latest figures seem a reason for optimism and inspiration.
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“It should encourage us to do more because … reductions even greater than this are achievable,” he said. “If we all stay together, the image I have is of a Chicago where people can go for a walk wherever they want.”
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– For detailed information about crime reported in individual communities, visit chicagotribune.com/go/crime on the Internet.