This is a terrible year for theater fans who enjoy a friendly wager. Almost all the major categories of the 2000 Tony Awards boil down to two-person or two-show races, the hardest kinds to call.
The awards, to be presented Sunday at Radio City Music Hall and telecast at 8 p.m. on CBS-Ch. 2, honor achievement in the 1999-2000 Broadway season.
A betting person can only put money down on two things with any confidence: The plush revival of “Kiss Me, Kate” will walk away with the most medallions. And the non-musical musical “Contact” will be crowned best musical.
Even those aren’t sure bets in the way some past winners have been. “Kiss Me, Kate” is in a two-way competition with a bright and brilliant “The Music Man,” directed by this year’s darling, Susan Stroman.
Stroman’s dance drama, “Contact,” could be upset by the dark but powerful “The Wild Party” because “Contact” uses no new songs and only recorded music, which offends many in the business. Since theater insiders vote for the Tonys, there could be a big surprise.
But the quadruple-nominated Stroman (two for direction, two for choreography) picks up the sympathy vote too. Her husband and former artistic partner, Mike Ockrent, died this winter. In truth, Stroman isn’t as good a director as he was or her competitors are. But she’s popular among her peers and this is her breakthrough year. Look for a double win for her.
This year’s toughest single category is for best actress in a musical, where all five competitors have their advocates. “Kiss Me, Kate’s” Marin Mazzie and “Aida’s” Heather Headley have split the critics’ prizes. Audra McDonald, a New York favorite, could also slip into the winner’s circle.
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The two play revivals to watch are “The Real Thing” and “A Moon for the Misbegotten.” The competitors for best new play are “True West” (eligible in this category because the 20-year-old drama had never before been seen on Broadway) and “Copenhagen.” The British entries, “The Real Thing” and “Copenhagen,” seem to have a leg up. But if there’s a viable American alternative, Tony voters have gone for them in recent years.
If you just have to bet on something, go for “Kiss Me, Kate” to win at least six or seven Tonys.