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player ready...Despite protests to the contrary, the NFL playoffs are all but set with five weeks to play.
Desperate coaches argue it’s not over until it’s over. NFL statisticians calculate that most all the teams are still mathematically alive. But the practical view is that December will be a month for the 12 front-runners to merely warm up for the postseason.
After Monday there were only seven winning teams in the NFC. There were eight in the AFC, but the top six were at least two games ahead of the other two.
So this is how it shapes up:
NFC–St. Louis, Minnesota and Dallas should win their divisions, with Washington, Tampa Bay, and Detroit as wild cards, although Green Bay still has a chance to sneak in.
AFC–Jacksonville, Indianapolis or Miami and Seattle should win their divisions, with Indianapolis or Miami, Tennessee and Buffalo as wild cards.
Here’s why:
NFC–The Rams are a lock and should clinch the NFC West Sunday at Carolina.
The Vikings have won five in a row and play two of their final three Central Division games at home against Green Bay and Detroit. They play at Tampa Bay next Monday night, but the Bucs will be starting a rookie quarterback, Shaun King.
Despite their quarterback uncertainty, the Bucs have the best shot at the Vikings because three of their last four division games are at home, against Minnesota, Detroit and Green Bay, plus a season-ending trip to Chicago. The Bucs’ outstanding defense has as good a chance as any of derailing Jeff George and the Vikings.
The Lions have the best division record, 4-1, but they must play all three of the their remaining division games on the road, where they are seldom effective–at Tampa Bay, at Chicago and at Minnesota.
The Packers still have a chance to break into the top three, but their three remaining division games also are on the road–at Chicago, Minnesota and Tampa Bay.
In the NFC East the Cowboys currently trail the Redskins by a game, but the Cowboys have defeated the Redskins twice and the Cowboys have both their remaining division games at home against Philadelphia and the Giants.
The Redskins have only one division game left–at home against Arizona–but must play on the road at Detroit and Indianapolis before finishing at home against Miami.
AFC–The Jaguars have a big game against the Titans at Tennessee Dec. 26, but both teams are virtual playoff locks in the weak AFC Central.
The Colts play at Miami next Sunday for the AFC East lead. Buffalo is a half-game behind but has defeated Miami twice and will play Indianapolis in Buffalo in the season finale Jan. 2.
The Patriots are 6-5 and reeling after three straight division losses. They are two games behind all three front-runners in the division, a virtually impossible makeup task in five weeks.
In the AFC West, the Seahawks remain two games up on the Kansas City Chiefs, including a win in Kansas City and a date in Seattle on Dec. 26.
At 6-5, the Chiefs and Patriots are the only other winning teams in the AFC aside from the six front-runners.
Anybody in either conference with six losses is a huge longshot. The one exception is the 5-6 Arizona Cardinals. After three wins in a row–including Detroit and Dallas–the Cardinals have only two losses in the NFC East and still get to play playoff contenders Washington and Green Bay, although both are on the road.
Lots of mistakes: Through 11 weeks, there were 121 stoppages for instant replay and 34 reversals. At that pace there would be 52 reversals for the season. During instant replay’s original six-year run, there were an average of just 62 reversals per season. But they had an eye in the sky then and a lot more plays were reviewed.
If eight teams decide they don’t like replay, owners can vote it out next March.
Some gripes: Despite the 90-second limit on reviews, the average time of delay for a review is 2 minutes 54 seconds by the time the referee runs to the monitor, looks at the replay, makes up his mind, runs back to the middle of the field and announces his decision. Length of games are up three minutes to 3 hours 7 minutes. The goal is three hours.
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The league spent $3 million on the vibrator system that coaches use to alert the referee that they want to challenge. Sometimes it doesn’t work.
Also many people don’t like the way the inherent inequality of the system because of its dependence on the network covering the game. The referee doesn’t get a replay until it’s shown on TV and frequently the networks break for a commercial. The number of cameras available also varies.
None of these problems addresses the continued element of human error, such as referees injecting their own opinions on calls rather than relying on obvious visual evidence to overturn a call. Last week Pittsburgh coach Bill Cowher was given an inaccurate interpretation of what was reviewable.
Bennett again: Take a look at the Colts’ much-improved defense and you see Cornelius Bennett at the top of the tackle chart. It is the same Cornelius Bennett who was with the Atlanta Falcons last season when they doubled their victory total to 14-2 and wound up in the Super Bowl as the surprise team of the year.
It is the same Cornelius Bennett who went to four Super Bowls with the Buffalo Bills. Bennett sees the common denominator of commitment to team goals.
“You have to have guys that are willing to be sacrificial lambs out there,” he said. “Sometimes in the defensive front, we run stunts and you’re always going to have one or two guys that are going to give up their bodies so somebody else can come (unblocked).
“On offense you have to have guys running dummy routes and not just loafing, but running full speed. Guys willing to do those little things adds up.”