Tribune pro football writer Don Pierson analyzes the prospects of the NFL’s 12 playoff teams:
NATIONAL CONFERENCE
MINNESOTA VIKINGS
Record: 15-1
Coach: Dennis Green
Players to watch: Randy Moss and Randall Cunningham are the most feared pitch-and-catch combination in the league.
Why they can win: Teams with 15-1 records don’t know much about losing. This team expects to win and is the highest-scoring team in NFL history. The loud Metrodome will intimidate.
Why they can lose: No dome team ever has made it to the Super Bowl. The Vikings haven’t been involved in many close games. They have a history of falling short of expectations.
Latest playoff experience: After losing four playoff games under Green, the Vikings beat the New York Giants last year before losing to the 49ers in San Francisco.
ATLANTA FALCONS
Record: 14-2
Coach: Dan Reeves
Players to watch: Chris Chandler finds ways to win, but Jamal Anderson is the key. He rushed for 100 yards or more 12 times. Safety Eugene Robinson and linebacker Cornelius Bennett add stability and Super Bowl experience to defense.
Why they can win: Some teams are destined to win. Reeves’ heart-bypass surgery keeps team on an emotional high. With Anderson, they lead the league in ball control and in turnover ratio, which helps their defense.
Why they can lose: The Falcons already have exceeded expectations. Their defense is active and effective, but slow in the secondary and susceptible to big plays.
Latest playoff experience: They went to Green Bay in 1995 with Jeff George at quarterback and lost. This is their first playoff bye since 1980.
DALLAS COWBOYS
Record: 10-6
Coach: Chan Gailey
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Players to watch: Deion Sanders is nursing a sore toe that could keep him out of the playoffs, a huge blow to their chances. But the Big Three of Troy Aikman, Emmitt Smith and Michael Irvin are playoff tested and dangerous.
Why they can win: They have done it before. Nobody will intimidate the Cowboys. Assuming they don’t overlook upstart Arizona this week, they will travel to Atlanta for a date with the playoff-inexperienced Falcons.
Why they can lose: They aren’t deep enough to withstand much adversity. The defense is vulnerable, especially without Sanders.
Latest playoff experience: Cowboys stomped Minnesota two years ago before losing their 1995 championship to Carolina.
SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS
Record: 12-4
Coach: Steve Mariucci
Players to watch: Terrell Owens and Garrison Hearst have become the team’s most dangerous weapons, more so than the venerable Jerry Rice. Steve Young set team record with 36 TD passes. Hearst has a touchy hamstring.
Why they can win: They can score — could be the only offense that can shoot it out with the Vikings. They open at home and are overdue to beat the Pack.
Why they can lose: They have a mental block against the Packers. They played in such an easy division they aren’t ready for playoff-caliber competition. Their defense isn’t nearly as good as last year’s, finishing 23rd, lowest among NFC playoff teams. Cornerbacks can’t cover.
Latest playoff experience: They haven’t been able to get by Green Bay for three years in a row, losing last year and in 1995 at San Francisco and in 1996 at Lambeau.
GREEN BAY PACKERS
Record: 11-5
Coach: Mike Holmgren
Players to watch: Injuries have riddled the Pack, but they hope Robert Brooks, Mark Chmura, Craig Newsome, Tyrone Davis and Vonnie Holliday are ready. If not, Brett Favre, Antonio Freeman and Reggie White are good enough to win a lot of games by themselves.
Why they can win: More than any other NFC team, they know what it takes. They enjoy a hex over the 49ers and may be the only team that can handle Metrodome commotion. No other playoff team is ranked as high as the Packers on offense (5th) and defense (4th).
Why they can lose: Because of injuries, they have yet to develop a rhythm. Dorsey Levens must play a major role coming off his leg injury. He has improved by the week.
Latest playoff experience: On the verge of back-to-back Super Bowl wins, they lost to the Denver Broncos last year in a game they considered an upset.
ARIZONA CARDINALS
Record: 9-7
Coach: Vince Tobin
Players to watch: Jake Plummer is the most exciting quarterback in the playoffs. Sometimes he excites the opponent — he will throw interceptions. Frank Sanders led NFC in catches with 89. Aeneas Williams is a great cornerback.
Why they can win: Nobody expects them to do anything after an uphill fight to get to the postseason. Plummer can stun teams if games are close.
Why they can lose: Of all the playoff teams, the Cardinals are the one just grateful for the opportunity. Their season goal already has been reached. Cards haven’t won in Dallas since 1989.
Latest playoff experience: Team hasn’t been to postseason since 1982 strike year, longest drought in the league.
AMERICAN CONFERENCE
DENVER BRONCOS
Record: 14-2
Coach: Mike Shanahan
Players to watch: Terrell Davis dominated early and got to 2,000 yards late. For a while, he looked unstoppable. John Elway has three good receivers in Shannon Sharpe, Rod Smith and Ed McCaffrey.
Why they can win: Generally considered the best team for most of the season, they have enough great players with enough experience to get it done again. Mile High advantage is huge.
Why they can lose: Two late-season losses stripped them of their invincibility. It also may have hurt their confidence. They wonder if they’re as good as they were last year. Defense gave up more yards than Bills, Dolphins or Jets.
Latest playoff experience: They won it all from a wild-card spot a year ago, overcoming similar late-season blahs. Two years ago, they had a bye and got upset at home by Jacksonville.
NEW YORK JETS
Record: 12-4
Coach: Bill Parcells
Players to watch: Vinny Testaverde is having a career year, breaking Joe Namath’s record for TD passes with 29 and leading all AFC passers. Receivers Keyshawn Johnson and Wayne Chrebet and running back Curtis Martin all thriving. Bryan Cox gives Bears fans reason to watch.
Why they can win: Although they are a year ahead of the normal three-year Parcells turnaround, they are on the best roll of anybody in the AFC with six wins in a row.
Why they can lose: They might look around and remember where they came from. Once they get to Mile High, the air may seem too rare.
Latest playoff experience: They blew a shot at the playoffs last year. Their last appearance was in 1991 as an embarrassed 8-8 wild-card. Before that it was in 1986. They haven’t won a playoff game since the strike-shortened fiasco season of 1982. Before that, their last win was Super Bowl III.
JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS
Record: 11-5
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Coach: Tom Coughlin
Players to watch: Mark Brunell’s knee is not 100 percent, but he is expected to play. He is their only chance. Rookie Fred Taylor made Jaguars forget they wanted Curtis Enis.
Why they can win: Although young, the Jaguars are as playoff-tested as any of their AFC rivals. They know they can go into Mile High and win because they did it two years ago.
Why they can lose: They have the lowest-ranked defense in the playoffs in terms of yards and have given up more points than any other AFC playoff team. Brunell’s injury is a problem.
Latest playoff experience: After upsetting the Broncos two years ago, they were blown out by Denver 42-17 in the wild-card round last year. Their defense hasn’t fully recovered.
MIAMI DOLPHINS
Record: 10-6
Coach: Jimmy Johnson
Players to watch: Dan Marino was sensational two weeks ago against John Elway but ordinary in the season finale against Atlanta. Losing fast pass rusher Jason Taylor for the playoffs is a blow.
Why they can win: The Dolphins have the best defense in the league against scoring, but losing Taylor robs them of a quick pass rusher. The defense is quick and disruptive and confident, and Marino can taste another shot.
Why they can lose: The running game Johnson loves isn’t up to speed yet. Dolphins have lowest-scoring offense among all playoff teams, so defense is their only shot.
Latest playoff experience: They were embarrassed in New England, losing to the Patriots for the third time last season. Johnson promised changes, but consistent results have yet to be seen.
BUFFALO BILLS
Record: 10-6
Coach: Wade Phillips
Players to watch: Doug Flutie has been more fun to watch than anybody. Eric Moulds has a better average per catch (20.4) than Randy Moss. Bruce Smith likes to gear up pass rush for playoffs.
Why they can win: The magic Flutie and the big-play ability of their defense is a formidable combination. The Bills are ranked sixth on offense and sixth on defense in yardage stats. They have beaten Miami in the playoffs before. Their plus-10 in turnovers matches Denver’s at the top of the AFC.
Why they can lose: They haven’t been able to get the Jets’ number and scored only one touchdown against the Dolphins in Miami earlier this year. They have given up more points than any AFC playoff team except Jacksonville.
Latest playoff experience: They stayed home last season and lost to the upstart Jaguars two years ago, so they haven’t won a playoff game since beating Miami in 1995.
NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS
Record: 9-7
Coach: Pete Carroll
Players to watch: Drew Bledsoe’s season is in jeopardy because of a broken finger. Terry Glenn is out. So is Ted Johnson. Willie McGinest is hobbled. Cornerback Ty Law and rookie runner Robert Edwards can’t do it all.
Why they can win: It would be a miracle overshadowing the back-to-back last-minute heroics of Bledsoe that salvaged the Patriots’ season. Nobody thinks they have a chance, so they can’t be uptight.
Why they can lose: Too many injuries. They don’t have nearly enough firepower left to compete. Scott Zolak already won once in relief of Bledsoe.
Latest playoff experience: As AFC East champions last season, they beat the rival Dolphins before losing to the Steelers in Pittsburgh 7-6.