Tampa Bay coach Tony Dungy is winless in Soldier Field, something he used last week as motivation for his players. History suggests he’s a year early. The Bucs have won only twice in Chicago–in 1979 and 1989.
The Buccaneers have not won on the road this year and have lost four out of five just as their offense is finally scoring a few points. This means their vaunted defense, still ranked a lofty fifth in the league, isn’t making game-winning plays.
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Question: What gives?
Answer: The Bucs are like the New York Giants. Often, when teams show dramatic improvement from one season to the next, as the Bucs and Giants did in their playoff runs last year, they slide back to the pack the following season.
Q: Why is this?
A: They start to believe that momentum carries from one season to the next. They forget how hard it is to win and how much work it takes to prepare to win. They start to think they are over the so-called hump, which doesn’t exist in the NFL. It’s all uphill.
Q: So it’s all psychological?
A: No way. Penalties and turnovers are killing them, which can have an adverse psychological effect. The normally efficient Dungy-coached team is minus-11 in turnovers, fourth worst in the league. The Bucs are 29th in penalty-yards ratio. They’re in the middle of the pack in penalties assessed, but their opponents have committed a lot fewer.
Q: Don’t the good teams overcome turnovers and penalties?
A: Sometimes, but as a rule those things kill even the better teams. Check it out: The top teams in turnover ratio are Atlanta, Dallas, Denver, Buffalo, Jacksonville, Minnesota, New England, Miami. The bottom teams in turnover ratio are Washington, Philadelphia, San Diego, Tampa Bay, Indianapolis. There aren’t too many exceptions to the rule.
Q: How will losing Hardy Nickerson hurt them?
A: He’s their second-leading tackler and their emotional leader in the huddle. His pericarditis, an inflammation of the sac surrounding the heart, left the Bucs with less heart in their loss to Detroit last week. “We were flat,” safety John Lynch said. They also miss injured defensive end Chidi Ahanotu.
Q: How is Trent Dilfer playing?
A: Not great. The guy keeps trying hard, but the expected breakthrough has not occurred. Dungy is much more patient than the fans, who notice that his passer efficiency rating is ahead of only four other NFC quarterbacks: Kerry Collins, Tony Banks, Danny Kanell and Bobby Hoying. It’s barely behind Jake Plummer, but Dilfer doesn’t have the knack for big plays that Plummer has. Dilfer’s missed big plays outnumber his big plays.
Q: What about the running game?
A: After a slow start, Warrick Dunn is averaging 4.9 yards a carry, tops in the NFC. Mike Alstott is averaging 4.0, only slightly less than Atlanta’s Jamal Anderson. Overall, the running game is ranked ninth in the league.
Q: Isn’t the red zone a problem?
A: A big problem. The Bucs have the 27th-best offense when they get into scoring territory. The good news for them is the Bears are 29th on offense in the red zone and 28th on defense in the red zone. No other team is that bad in close on both sides of the ball.