Oh, for the days when arms control was to be the pressing issue during this week’s summit between Presidents Clinton and Boris Yeltsin.
Just a couple months ago, Russian foot-dragging over ratification of the START II treaty was seen as the major impediment to a Moscow meeting. Now, with Russia’s economy in the abyss and Yeltsin under pressure to resign, START II is almost a non-starter.
Yeltsin might be forgiven if he is a distracted host–even more distracted than usual–when Clinton arrives Tuesday for two days of talks.
Russia’s ruble is in limbo and its banks under siege. Politicians across the spectrum are openly negotiating how to divvy up power the Kremlin cannot seem to hold. Clinton, meanwhile, has his own problems.
It’s all a recipe, analysts say, for a summit that may not be substantial but could prove interesting.
“What can come of the summit?” asked Sergei Karaganov of the Institute of Europe in Moscow. “Well, nothing in particular.”
The Russians might like to see Clinton arrive with a blank check aimed at bailing out the debt-ridden government, but no one expects that to happen.
Through the International Monetary Fund and other lenders, the West has pumped tens of billions of dollars into Russia during the Yeltsin era. Yet the giant nuclear power is in danger of crashing back to the post-Soviet days of hyperinflation and rising poverty.
Viktor Chernomyrdin, hoping to be confirmed as prime minister early this week, said Saturday that despite those ills and opposition calls for drastic measures, Russia will not retreat to Soviet-era economic policies.
“We are already part of the world economy, and there will be no return to the past,” Chernomyrdin said.
Challenging reports from parliament members negotiating changes in Russia’s economic policies and political system, Chernomyrdin denied that Russia would end internal convertibility of the ruble. But his government will act to limit capital flight and protect bank deposits, he said.
The government press office also said Saturday that Chernomyrdin had appointed three respected reformers–Cabinet members Boris Fyodorov and Mikhail Zadornov and Central Bank Chairman Sergei Dubinin–to a commission charged with forming urgent anti-crisis policies.
The West greeted that news and Chernomyrdin’s televised pledge as encouraging. The IMF is threatening to cut Russia off from any future loan disbursals if Chernomyrdin abandons the free market, a warning Clinton will echo in Moscow.
Regarding the summit, “probably Clinton will limit himself to well-worn words . . . and repeat the well-known conditions of the IMF and World Bank–that is, cut spending and collect taxes,” said Sergei Rogov of the U.S.A. and Canada Institute.
So why bother pushing ahead with the summit?
One argument is philosophical. No matter who winds up running Russia at the end of next week or next month or next year, the White House will have to deal with them.
“It is still worth doing if only because summits happen only once or twice a year,” Karaganov said. (The last Clinton-Yeltsin summit was in March 1997.) “If you stop doing them during times of crisis, then Russian and American relations break their continuity. It’s one of the worst possible times for a summit, but you can’t stop.”
Though communist rivals, Russian newspapers and even some of Yeltsin’s supporters insist that his resignation is only a matter of time, Yeltsin went on national television Friday night to promise that he would serve until his term ends in 2000.
He made the same pledge privately to Strobe Talbott, U.S. deputy secretary of state.
Clinton and his team also will meet with Chernomyrdin, brought back by Yeltsin on Aug. 23 after five months out of the government. Talks also are scheduled with leaders of the Duma, Russia’s opposition-dominated lower house of parliament.
“You can consider the visit of the American president as a kind of ratification or nomination of Mr. Chernomyrdin as the person who will follow Yeltsin in the transitional, post-Yeltsin period,” said Alexei Podberyozkin, a leading Communist member of the Duma’s International Affairs Committee.
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“The economic aspect is that Mr. Clinton will be eager to discuss the financial crisis in Russia and maybe, maybe, he will find some way to offer help to stabilize the economy.”
More likely, Clinton will urge his Russian hosts to reject the economic measures sought by Podberyozkin and his fellow leftists. The Communists, backed by parliamentarians in several parties, are arguing for price and currency controls and want to print more money to arrest Russia’s economic dive.
To be sure, Clinton’s team has an agenda beyond damage control.
The two sides will discuss arms control, and the U.S. also will press Russia to better block the transfer of weapons and weapons technology to nations such as Iran. Kosovo and Iraq, two troubled lands to which the White House and Kremlin favor different approaches, are likely topics.
The U.S. bombings of alleged terrorist camps in Afghanistan and a chemical factory in Sudan also will be raised.
On Aug. 21, Yeltsin sharply criticized the U.S. for those actions, and analysts at the time wondered whether the tirade would overshadow the summit. That was before Yeltsin fired his government, brought back Chernomyrdin, and plunged Russia deeper into political and economic chaos.
The dust-up over the U.S. attacks was less than two weeks ago, but like the differences over arms control barely rates a mention.