Hello, John Stroger. You’re in deep trouble.
The affable president of the Cook County Board is in real danger of losing the second most powerful job in local government, a job the Democrats have controlled for the last 30 years. For all those years the Republicans have put up well-meaning candidates who knew they would lose. This time, they’ve put up somebody who means to win.
Stroger’s friends were relieved when he crushed County Commissioner Cal Sutker in the Democratic primary last March. They were happy, and a bit surprised, that Stroger did so well with voters. But the primary might have given them some false security.
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A new Tribune poll found that Stroger has just a 41 percent to 39 percent lead over Republican Aurelia Pucinski, clerk of the Circuit Court. That’s a dead heat, and that’s disaster for an incumbent.
The news only gets worse for Stroger. The poll found that the two groups with the largest share of undecided voters are women and suburbanites, who are more likely to break to Pucinski. She has slightly better name recognition than Stroger. A few more voters have a favorable opinion of her. A few more voters have an unfavorable opinion of him.
The Tribune poll confirmed what Democrats have been seeing in various tracking polls around the county. Stroger’s in trouble.
Stroger, of course, has history and Mayor Richard Daley and the Democratic organization on his side. At least, Stroger has Daley and most of the Democratic Party with him. Well, maybe Daley and some of the Democrats.
Pucinski jumped from the Democrats last December, but she still has friends in the party. “I don’t think anybody will break their fanny for Stroger. That’s how she’ll benefit,” one Democratic committeeman told me.
Then there is House Speaker Michael Madigan. He will no doubt profess his loyalty to the Democratic ticket, Stroger included. But Madigan has long ties to Pucinski and she has avoided removing any of his patronage workers in her office since she switched political parties.
Madigan has repaid the favor. Last spring, Pucinski wanted to push in the legislature a package of bills to crack down on deadbeat fathers. One of Madigan’s top aides shopped around for sponsors for the Pucinski bills. Pucinski testified for the package and with the support of Madigan and the Republicans, she got a bill passed and signed by Gov. Jim Edgar. Madigan helped Pucinski get a great campaign issue.
Pucinski also has the strong support of former Gov. Jim Thompson, who has jumped into this campaign with more enthusiasm for county politics than he ever showed when he was governor. Pucinski has announced she will appoint Thompson to lead a special commission to cut spending and taxes in the county.
Stroger, meanwhile, seems to be going out of his way to help Pucinski.
Last Sunday, Stroger was the only political leader who showed up at a parade thrown by Rev. Paul Hall, who was convicted in 1989 of sexually assaulting a 17-year-old foster child who lived in Hall’s home. Stroger told a reporter Hall has learned from his mistake. Hall said he wasn’t guilty in the first place.
Now, Stroger told me Thursday that he condemns what Hall did, that he just took an opportunity to do a little campaigning. But my guess is he’ll hear again about this parade again.
Stroger’s still trying to explain why his administration gave a picnic permit to organizers of the “Freaknic” festival in a county forest preserve earlier this month that turned into a mess when police tried to shut it down. A 16-year-old boy was shot in the arm and there were 21 arrests for assault, unlawful use of a gun, possession of marijuana, disorderly conduct and aggravated battery to a police officer.
The county board president dismissed the whole deal as “a traffic problem.”
Now, Stroger might have claimed that the Freaknic organizers fooled his bureaucrats about their intentions for the picnic permit. But that’s what the organizers did last year.
The same group got a permit in 1997 that they said would be used for a family reunion, but they tossed a party that drew tens of thousands of people. Cops from six towns, the sheriff’s police and the state police had to be called in to keep control.
At least the police didn’t have to be hauled in to break up the beer-and-margaritas bash at Cook County Hospital that came to light this week. But Stroger might fairly be asked why most of the night-shift medical staffers at the party, who were caught on videotape, got off with nothing more than a tongue-lashing.
All this means Pucinski has plenty to talk about in the fall campaign, aside from whether taxpayers are happy about the $1 billion public hospital Stroger is building.
Now, Stroger is far from defenseless as he runs for re-election. This week he was boasting about recent upgrades in the county’s bond rating from two investment houses, the first upgrades in 25 years. Last spring he abated $18.7 million in property taxes, and he may move for another tax break before Election Day.
In a few weeks, Stroger is likely to announce that the county’s long-term deficit, which just a couple of years ago he estimated at $500 million, has been eliminated. The county’s finances have improved on his watch, in part because of a solid financial team, in part because of a great-guns economy.
But good news on your debt rating loses its luster when you’re explaining why county-approved picnics are turning into wild melees.
As if Stroger didn’t have enough self-induced problems, there are some beyond his control. Barring an Illinois Supreme Court reversal, voters won’t be able to cast a straight-ticket vote this November, which in the past has meant a huge edge for Cook County Democrats. Disgust over President Clinton’s lies and infidelity may keep Democrats home and or push independents to the GOP.
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Stroger and Pucinski may be overshadowed in the fall by the big-money races for governor and the U.S. Senate. But it’s the race to control Cook County where everything is lining up for an upset.