Two weeks ago it seemed much easier than it does today. This shouldn’t be taken as a prediction that the Roger Maris home-run record will be safe for another year. Nobody knows what’s going to happen. The barrage can continue momentarily. Still, there has been a lull.
Mark McGwire, the leader with 45 homers, was 1 for 2 Tuesday, but has gone 26 at-bats without a homer. Ken Griffey Jr. hasn’t gone deep in his last five games. And Sammy Sosa, who hit one more single Tuesday, hasn’t connected in his last four games.
“The likelihood it would be broken was greater two weeks ago,” Cubs manager Jim Riggleman acknowledged. “The mental strain can be enormous. And everyone gets worn down. But I still think the record will be broken.”
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So do I, but there are no guarantees.
The way Riggleman sees it, four sluggers, not three, are in pursuit and have a chance for baseball immortality. The fourth horseman is San Diego’s Greg Vaughn who, as a result of a recent rush, has 38 home runs, four fewer than Sosa and only three fewer than Griffey.
In predicting a new one-season long-ball king, Riggleman offered this disclaimer:
“All four, or at least two of the four, will have to stay healthy,” he said.
Riggleman doesn’t want to talk about Sosa’s chances.
“All I’m going to say is that Sammy has been the ultimate warrior,” he said. “He has played with a lot of injuries and is still having a great season. The less I talk about him, the better. I’m not going to add to the pressure.”
The prevailing opinion is that big sluggers usually tire in the stretch. There is, of course, some validity in this. As Jim Brosnan said it’s a long and grueling season. But everyone is affected.
Kerry Wood, the Cubs’ rookie phenom, said a few days ago that his arm was “dead.” This shouldn’t come as a surprise. All of the young players learn there is a huge difference in playing minor-league or college ball. None previously has experienced the demands of the 162-game schedule.
“Everybody gets tired,” said Mark Grace, the Cubs’ veteran first baseman. “And if anybody says they’re still fresh, they’re lying.”
But there is a companion truth, particularly for those with a contender such as Sosa and Vaughn. The heat of a pennant race is a guaranteed stimulant. The adrenalin flows.
Frank Malzone, a veteran scout, says Sosa will have the advantage if the Cubs stay alive.
“He’ll get better pitches to hit than McGwire,” he said. “If they walk McGwire I doubt if it will be the difference between the Cardinals winning or losing. They’re going to have to pitch to Sosa whether they like it or not.”
Griffey has the best natural swing but Malzone, and others, insist Griffey is handicapped by what appears to be a lack of motivation.
“Down the line, maybe next year or the year after, Griffey probably will break the record,” Malzone said.
Cub coach Billy Williams, a Hall of Fame slugger, says the odds, at least for this season, favor McGwire.
“There are still two months to go and he only needs 16 to tie the record,” Williams said. “If he gets good pitches to hit, he can hit 10 or 15 in three weeks.”
But will they pitch to him?
“I don’t know about that,” Williams replied. “But I know what it’s like to get tired. It’s not so much physically tired but mentally tired.”
Williams recalled that in 1971 Leo Durocher, then the Cub manager, took him out of the lineup; it snapped Williams’ consecutive-game streak at 1,117 games, then the National League record.
“Leo was right,” Williams said. “I needed a day off.”
According to Bob Brenly, a former big-league catcher who is a broadcaster with the Arizona Diamondbacks, the home-run slowdown was inevitable.
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“I don’t see why they should pitch to McGwire or Sosa,” Brenly said. “The pitchers aren’t stupid. They’ve been making better pitches. They’ve stopped throwing strikes to these guys.
“McGwire’s a dead low-ball hitter. Lately, he has been getting the high fastball and the high breaking ball out of the strike zone. And they have been getting smart with Sammy. He’s getting the hard fastball inside. What’s surprising to me is that Sammy and McGwire don’t get more knockdown pitches.”