John Koskinen hopes to imitate the Maytag repairman: to become a fix-it man with nothing to fix. He heads the President’s Council on Year 2000 Conversion, which makes him the nation’s main mechanic to repair history’s biggest computer glitch. If Koskinen succeeds, he stays obscure; if he fails, he becomes notorious. No one knows which it will be. Even those who understand the problem, he says, are “guessing” about whether it’s an impending calamity or correctable mishap. For the moment, though, Koskinen is grappling with a cyber Godzilla.
We have become so digitally dependent that one computer error–if widespread–can paralyze everyday life. By now, the glitch (abbreviated to Y2K) is increasingly recognized. Some computers read the new century as “00” and not “2000.” This could trigger shutdowns of systems that run credit card transactions and power grids. Or it could cause computers to spew streams of faulty data on mortgage payments and hospital records. Then there are “embedded chips”: possibly flawed computer chips in control panels that operate everything from fax machines to supertankers. Even if only 1 percent of the chips have date flaws, there could be many potential failures.
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Koskinen is no stranger to disasters. As a businessman, he specialized in turning around ailing companies. Not surprisingly, he describes Y2K mainly as a management problem, not a technical one. In effect, he’s saying: We know how to correct faulty software and replace defective chips; what we don’t know is whether companies and government agencies will do it in time.
Nor is it surprising that Koskinen contends that the federal government is making more progress than its fiercest critics contend. The Federal Aviation Administration has already made enough changes to handle 70 percent of the nation’s air traffic at the turn of the century, he says. He expects the agency to comply fully by the year 2000. Similarly, he believes that many routine government functions, such as the 44 million monthly Social Security payments, will proceed smoothly.
Maybe–or maybe not. Software projects are routinely late. “They’re doing what all project leaders do: Until it’s late, it’s on time,” says Peter de Jager, a Y2K consultant. “I talk of the mythical 100-day project that’s on time for the first 99 days.”
To follow the cyber food chain is to glimpse the potential for havoc. Computer systems are often so interconnected that, even if one system is working perfectly, it can be crippled by another that isn’t. The Social Security Administration gets high marks for its Y2K conversion. Its computers can still determine people’s eligibility and benefits. But monthly payments come from the Treasury Department, which is the government’s main disbursement agency and makes more than 850 million separate payments a year. And Treasury’s Y2K conversion is said to lag.
True? No, say both Social Security and Treasury. “We started our testing with Treasury in March,” says Kathleen Adams, Social Security’s Y2K manager. “It’s going very well.” But Treasury isn’t the end of the line. About 70 percent of Social Security payments are electronic deposits, funneled through the Federal Reserve’s Automated Clearing House. Testing with that system, too, has already begun. Even if it works fine, the systems of thousands of banks must perform for the final transfers to occur.
What worries Koskinen most are computers outside government–and his immediate control. He cites two areas. First, other countries: They’re reacting more slowly than the United States. Second, small businesses: Many don’t think they have a problem. For example, the National Association of Manufacturers recently surveyed 10,000 small and medium-sized industrial firms with fewer than 500 workers. About 40 percent to 50 percent hadn’t yet fixed their accounting or production systems.
Koskinen’s fix-it strategy starts with self-interest. He presumes that anyone with a flawed computer wants it repaired. His plan, then, is to find new ways to publicize the dangers and to expand the pool of technical information.
The nation has 330,000 accountants; so Koskinen–through the American Institute of Certified Public Accountants–wants them to badger their small-business clients about Y2K. President Clinton has raised the Y2K issue with other government leaders. And Koskinen suggests a law that would provide some liability protection for companies that share their knowledge: Say, one phone company telling others what steps it took. Many companies now fear being sued if any of their ideas prove to be wrong. President Clinton will submit such legislation.
It’s common sense, as are most of Koskinen’s other proposals. But they would be much better if this were 1995. Koskinen is in a race against time. He’s been on the job only since early this year: an indicator of the Clinton administration’s tardiness in recognizing the Y2K problem. If Koskinen turns out not to be the Maytag man, it will not be because he was given an impossible mission–but because he was given it too late.