The Central Intelligence Agency has concluded that Iraq is still hiding a major chemical and biological weapons development program that poses a direct threat to U.S. forces, interests and allies in the Middle East, CIA Director George Tenet warned Wednesday.
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Tenet told Congress that unless the United Nations is permitted to conduct thorough inspections in Iraq, CIA analysts believe Iraqi leader Saddam Hussein will move quickly to put those weapons into production.
The intelligence chief’s testimony came as the Clinton administration laid the groundwork for possible military action against Iraq following months of intensive diplomacy that have not persuaded Hussein to comply with UN weapons inspection requirements imposed at the end of the Persian Gulf war.
Warning that the U.S. won’t allow Iraq’s defiance to continue, Secretary of State Madeleine Albright departed Washington late Wednesday for Europe and the Middle East to rally support for a possible use of force against Iraq.
Before her departure, Albright charged that Hussein’s goal is to end United Nations sanctions in order to build up an arsenal of weapons of mass destruction.
As the U.S. sought to ratchet up the pressure on Iraq, Russia pressed efforts to resolve the impasse with Hussein. But regional tensions were heightened when Israel warned that any attack by Iraq would lead to immediate retaliation from Israel.
During the gulf war, Israel, at the behest of the U.S., did not retaliate against Iraq despite absorbing numerous Iraqi missile attacks. This time, a senior Israeli official vowed, things will be different.
“Surely Iraq must know that it will not pay to attack Israel and that Israel has all the means necessary to make such an attack very, very dangerous for Iraq– much more dangerous for Iraq than it is for Israel,” said David Bar-Illan, a senior adviser to Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.
In Washington, Tenet gave his assessment of Iraqi capabilities as part of a rundown of global threats to the U.S., delivered during the CIA director’s annual public testimony before the Senate Intelligence Committee.
Tenet said Iraq possesses the equipment and technical expertise to “quickly resurrect its (weapons of mass destruction) program if UN inspections were ended.”
“Iraq, under Saddam, continues to present a serious threat to U.S. forces, interests and allies,” he said. “Continued UN sanctions can keep pressure on his regime and cast uncertainty over Saddam’s hold on power. But . . . Saddam is pushing more aggressively than last year to erode the sanctions regime.”
Albright said the U.S. wouldn’t let that happen.
“Our objective is to deny Saddam Hussein the capability to use weapons of mass destruction ever again,” she said at a news conference. “Saddam’s goal is to have it both ways. . . . We cannot, must not and will not let him succeed. . . . We need to have unfettered and unconditional access.”
Albright said a military strike against Iraq would not be intended to oust Hussein but would be “intended to coerce him” into resuming cooperation with UN weapons inspectors.
The U.S. is not seeking further statements from the UN Security Council calling on Iraq to comply, Albright said. U.S. officials insist they have sufficient authorization to launch a strike without further UN action.
More important, administration officials apparently don’t believe the U.S. could win Security Council authorization for even threatening an attack, much less launching one, because Russia and China continue to oppose the use of force.
The Iraqis, meanwhile, are making no effort to appear accommodating to UN inspectors.
In Baghdad, Iraqi Foreign Minister Mohammed Said Sahhaf said the U.S. was fabricating the current crisis and he denounced chief UN arms inspector Richard Butler, calling him biased.
Earlier this week, Butler warned that Iraq could launch a biological weapons attack against neighboring countries, using mobile missiles. Butler said Israel could be vulnerable to such an attack.
Butler provided no conclusive proof that Iraq possesses such a hidden capability, and said his warning was an “extrapolation” based on intelligence data and inspectors’ suspicions.
The Iraqis seized upon the statement to attack Butler and dig in their heels in opposition to continued inspections.
“We were shocked by the outrageous statements by Mr. Butler. . . . These emphasized that Mr. Butler is not neutral,” Sahhaf said. He added that Iraq had sent a letter to UN Secretary General Kofi Annan demanding that Butler be reprimanded.
France also criticized Butler’s remarks, saying they were ill-considered.
“Mr. Butler is not sticking to his role by making such statements. . . . His comments do not conform with the information (he) gave the Security Council,” said French Foreign Ministry spokesman Yves Doutriaux.
The UN Special Commission, headed by Butler, says it has found and destroyed 30 Iraqi warheads. Baghdad has claimed at various times to have as many as 100 warheads but claimed they were destroyed. However, it has not given a complete accounting to the United Nations.
United Nations weapons inspectors say Iraq retains at least seven “training missiles.”
“There’s a whole lot of unaccounted for indigenous capacity” to produce missiles, said Ewen Buchanan, a spokesman for the Special Commission.
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In Paris, French President Jacques Chirac held talks with Russian Foreign Minister Yevgeny Primakov. France, which once defended Iraq in Security Council debates, appears to be losing patience with Iraqi intransigence. French diplomats say they have not ruled out supporting a U.S. military strike.
But a spokeswoman for Chirac said, “The diplomatic route is the one favored by France.”
“Our positions are close,” Primakov said. “France and Russia (agree) on the necessity of doing everything to ensure the situation is stable . . . and that Iraq respects the demands of the pertinent resolutions in order to find a solution that will not upset stability.”
Albright is scheduled to meet Friday with Primakov and French Foreign Minister Hubert Vedrine.
In Israel, Netanyahu said Israel was “preparing for any possibility,” but senior members of the government said there was no need to take special precautions against an attack yet.
“We need to continue to be calm and go about our everyday affairs. The army and the security establishment . . . are checking (the situation) and if there will be a need, we will take the appropriate steps at the appropriate time,” said Defense Secretary Yitzhak Mordechai.
Israeli news media cited harrowing intelligence estimates about the possible death toll from an Iraqi chemical or biological attack. In the 1991 Persian Gulf war, Israel was hit by 39 Iraqi scud missiles from Iraq carrying conventional warheads, not biological and chemical weapons.
While Israeli officials urged calm, a leading Russian diplomat met with Hussein in Baghdad. The Iraqi News Agency said Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Viktor Posuvalyuk gave the Iraqi leader a letter from President Boris Yeltsin on the “crisis manufactured by the United States and (the UN) Special Commission.”
U.S. officials warned that, without the possibility of UN inspections, Hussein would build up his forces and continue to pose a threat to the region.
The head of the Defense Intelligence Agency, Lt. Gen. Patrick Hughes, told the Senate Intelligence Committee that any relaxation of economic sanctions against Iraq would increase the danger Hussein poses.
“Saddam retains the goal of dominating Kuwait, but his options to destabilize the gulf region . . . will remain limited so long as UN sanctions are in place and effective,” Hughes said.