These are heady days for the network computer–the year-old concept for a stripped-down, low-cost, easy-to-use device that could replace complicated personal computers at many tasks.
Chip stalwart Intel Corp. finally has embraced the concept, enlisting the industry’s most influential computer manufacturers behind a design for low-powered devices that would draw most of their power and data from a network. And Oracle Corp.–whose CEO, Larry Ellison, popularized the notion of an NC–is touting its own network computers in national TV ads, beckoning businesses to ditch their PCs for a cheaper and simpler alternative.
It seems as if a whole new world of desktop computing is just around the corner. But as has been true throughout the short, eventful life of the NC, things are both less and more than they seem.
In particular, while the concept of the NC now has been solidly established, two of its supporters’ other goals remain elusive. Network computers aren’t yet a real option for most businesses. And the notion that NCs will break Microsoft Corp.’s control of the desktop remains highly questionable.
Consider Oracle’s high-impact ad campaign, which recently began to place commercials during telecasts of professional football games. It promises a PC replacement–one that offers lower cost, easier operation and better manageability. But at present, no such thing is available.
Instead, the ads refer to a product that an Oracle subsidiary, Network Computer Inc., has been offering since June. These NCs–built by third-party manufacturers around Digital Equipment Corp.’s low-powered StrongArm chip–currently are more suitable as replacements for dumb terminals than desktop PCs, said Bonnie Crater, vice president of strategic marketing for Network Computer Inc.
Terminals are built around a keyboard and monitor and do nothing more than access data and programs from large computers, called servers.
Crater insisted that NCs will offer much more–and soon. “In 1998, we’re going to start seeing the software come out that will let NCs start replacing desktop PCs,” she said, referring to applications based on Sun Microsystems Inc.’s Java operating environment that would offer most of the features of Windows-based PCs. By then, Intel and its industry allies also should be ready to compete, with a design called “the Lean Client.”
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Crater welcomed Intel’s entry, after months in which the chipmaker clung tightly to the PC. It “really validates the entire concept of the network computer,” she said.
But in truth, for the original NC coalition, Intel’s move could end up being a double-edged sword.
On the plus side, Intel’s announcement of the Lean Client’s specifications brought with it the endorsements of some of the industry’s most influential companies: International Business Machines, Compaq Computer Corp., Hewlett-Packard Co. and the Santa Cruz Operation.
The companies united behind a specification calling for a minimum of a 100-MHz Pentium processor, 8 megabytes of memory, a graphics chip and a keyboard. The design will be finalized in late January or early February, and products should be on the market by March or April, said Lee Hirsch, a marketing manager for Intel’s hardware products group.
This minimal design is mostly suitable for the terminal replacement market, which could represent 10 million units annually by the year 2000. But the Lean Client also can accommodate more memory, a better graphics processor and a faster Intel microprocessor, making it a contender for the desktop as well.
“I think that this is a very positive move by Intel to address the sub-PC space,” said Greg Blatnick, a senior industry analyst for Zona Research. But Intel isn’t just seeking to validate a market, Blatnick and other analysts note. It’s seeking to dominate a market, in ways that could blunt the original purpose of the NC’s main proponents, Oracle and Sun.
“The NC concept has already won, in terms of a thin client that relies on the server and is cheaper and easier to manage,” Blatnick said. “But Oracle and Sun’s idea of using the NC to lessen or even eliminate Microsoft’s influence on information systems managers isn’t going anywhere.”
In fact, while Intel’s Lean Client could run a number of operating systems, initially “it will probably work best with (Microsoft’s) Windows CE,” Hirsch said.
As a desktop replacement, Windows CE–Microsoft’s operating system for lower-powered devices–promises virtually everything that a Java-based OS does: compatibility with Java applications, a browser and the ability to access Windows applications and data.
The result? Oracle and Sun might well win the battle to define the future of desktop computing, but lose the war to sell the future operating system.
“I think the market needed some sponsorship,” said Lorraine Hariton, senior vice president of marketing and business development for Network Computing Devices Inc., a company that makes NCs based on non-Intel processors, “and Intel is certainly in a good position to provide that.”
But Intel also is providing “an alternative to what Oracle and Sun have been promoting. Now there’s an NC device that also supports the Windows architecture, so it changes the equation somewhat,” she added.
“The truth is, by the year 2002 or 2003 I don’t think anyone knows what the mix of standard PCs or NCs or intelligent devices is going to be,” Hariton said. “We just think it’s going to be a broader variety than it is now.”