In the first sign of an American diplomatic overture to resolve the crisis with Iraq, the Clinton administration is exploring with Russia and France the possibility of expanding humanitarian assistance to Iraq if Saddam Hussein backs down from his confrontation with the United Nations over weapons inspections.
Iraq’s ambassador to the UN, Nizar Hamdoon, rejected as a “non-starter” a deal to resolve the current crisis by expanding the program that lets Iraq sell some of its oil to buy food for its people.
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Despite Iraq’s cool initial reaction, Moscow experts said the proposal is the kind of diplomatic offering that might give Russian and French mediators what they need: A way for Hussein to save face and declare victory even as U.S. warships lurk in the Persian Gulf preparing for a possible military strike.
Under a scenario sketched by a senior Clinton administration official, Hussein would be told through an intermediary, possibly Russia, that the U.S. and its allies are prepared to support a UN Security Council resolution to broaden the program that provides food, medical supplies and other aid to Iraqis, paid for by UN-monitored sales of its oil.
The proposal, tantamount to a blink by Washington, came one day after Hussein appeared to blink first by signaling he did not want a military confrontation with the U.S.
U.S. officials stressed that they are not negotiating with Hussein and that the proposal is being fleshed out in discussions among Secretary of State Madeleine Albright, French Foreign Minister Hubert Vedrine and Russian Foreign Minister Yevgeny Primakov. Any action by the Security Council would be contingent on Hussein’s reversing his decision to expel American members of the UN weapons inspection teams.
“We are prepared to consider minor modifications . . . if Hussein comes back into compliance,” a senior administration official said.
The administration has emphasized keeping a united international front against Hussein. Knowing the U.S. can count on Britain’s support, Albright has focused her attention in recent days on stiffening resolve in the Arab world and forging a common position with French and Russian officials. Both Vedrine and Primakov have toned down their differences with Washington on how to respond to Hussein’s gambit.
The danger is that Hussein will interpret the U.S. move on humanitarian aid as an indication that the U.S. resolve to use force is weakening and will dig in his heels. Another problem is that the U.S. may not be willing to go as far as France and Russia in offering Hussein inducements.
Hoping to avoid a military confrontation, Moscow and Paris have tried to mediate the crisis, telling Iraq it must comply but advising that discussion about easing sanctions could occur once the crisis is resolved.
Moscow and Baghdad have had close ties that date to when the Soviet Union helped Hussein build up a war machine that was devastated nearly seven years ago in the Persian Gulf war.
UN Resolution 986, known as the oil-for-food program, was approved by the Security Council in 1994. It permits the sale of $2 billion in Iraqi oil every six months to pay for food and other assistance. But Iraq has complained that deliveries of aid have been slow and that the UN committee responsible for approving the purchases has too tightly limited the types of goods, increasing Iraqi suffering.
Nearly half the proceeds from the oil sales go to pay for the costs of the UN Special Commission, which is responsible for conducting weapons inspections in Iraq, and for paying reparations to Kuwait.
The U.S. does not want to expand the humanitarian assistance too much, fearing it will ease the economic embargo on Iraq and convince the Iraqi middle class that they can resume a comfortable standard of living even if Hussein remains in power.
The U.S. says it is contemplating three changes in Resolution 986: increasing the amount of oil than can be sold, allowing purchases that go beyond strict humanitarian aid to include items such as parts for ambulances and making the program permanent, rather than subject to renewal twice a year.
As Albright has hopscotched around the Persian Gulf in recent days seeking support for confronting Hussein, she has repeatedly encountered criticism that the U.S. insistence on maintaining sanctions against Hussein hurts the Iraqi people.
Worried that a display of American power could increase sympathy for Hussein, Arab governments have been reluctant to endorse military action.
Albright met with Saudi Arabian officials, including King Fahd, Sunday evening and Monday morning. In a statement issued after one of the meetings, the Saudi government expressed support for giving “diplomatic efforts every chance to resolve the present crisis.”
It is Russia’s ties with Baghdad that the U.S. hopes to exploit in communicating international resolve to Hussein. “The Russian channel is the prime channel,” a U.S. official said.
Beyond its history with Iraq, Moscow has good reason to get involved.
As much as Yeltsin considers the West his friend, he shares with many of his people and advisers a wariness of the U.S. In the past few months he has questioned Washington’s influence in the Middle East, in Europe and in his own back yard, the Caucasus.
Discounting predictions of a 21st Century dominated by the United States or by the Americans and Chinese, Yeltsin talks of a “multipolar world” in which Russia would play a leading role. A strong diplomatic move in this situation fits that vision.
Russia, like France, also wants to trade with Iraq. Moscow thinks it can sell the Iraqis technology and equipment to find and develop its oil resources, as well as to build hydro and thermal power stations.
Largely because of the UN sanctions, trade that once reached $1.5 billion a year has sunk to almost zero. Russian officials calculate the sanctions have cost the nation $10 billion. Added to that is more than $7 billion that Iraq owed the former Soviet Union.
Finally, Russia is concerned that armed conflict in the Middle East could spiral out of control. Russia’s southern border is only about 300 miles from Iraq’s northernmost frontier. Strong Islamic fundamentalist movements in several nations along Russia’s south add to the volatile mix.
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A senior Saudi official said the kingdom was not ruling out support for military action and for authorization for the U.S. military to use bases and fly over Saudi territory in a military strike.
He said such commitments had not been sought or given yet. “That’s a bridge we will cross when we get there,” the official said.
The Saudi government and many of its neighbors in the Persian Gulf are hesitant to back military action because they are furious with the Clinton administration for what they contend is U.S. unwillingness to press Israel to break the deadlock in peace negotiations with the Palestinians.
In her stopover, Albright heard Arabs ask why the U.S. was being so tough on Hussein but not on Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.
U.S. officials are quick to respond that the two situations are hardly comparable, because Hussein poses a major threat to Mideast stability, they say. Even so, the administration has stepped up pressure on Netanyahu to make some attempt at progress in peace talks.