After half a season, there are only eight losing teams in the NFL. There are 22 teams at .500 or better, an amazing number. That’s the kind of parity the NFL likes, albeit at the considerable expense of the eight laggards who have won only 11 games among them.
Last year there were 18 teams at .500 or better at midseason. The year before that, there were 17.
If it’s getting easier to win, the Bears haven’t noticed. If it’s getting harder, how come there are more teams winning?
What is happening is there are fewer teams dominating. The 49ers and Broncos are riding high with 7-1 records, but is either really dominant?
The 49ers enjoy playing in the weakest division. Once dominant, are they really better without Jerry Rice? The Broncos got the jump on their division, but the Chiefs and Seahawks are catching up.
A 7-1 record is no sure sign of dominance, as the Redskins can attest. They were 7-1 last year only to miss the playoffs.
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With close races in five of the six divisions, what will happen this year?
AFC EAST
Miami. The 5-3 Dolphins are undefeated in conference (5-0) and division (2-0) play and still have six division games left. The Jets have lost three and the Patriots haven’t won a big game. The Bills get Miami twice in the next three weeks sandwiched around New England, but who plays quarterback?
AFC CENTRAL
Pittsburgh. Looking good and getting better, the 6-2 Steelers have a split with the Jaguars behind them and face Baltimore, Cincinnati and Arizona in the next five weeks. They have Denver at home and New England on the road in December. They are the best run-stop run team in football.
The Jaguars have an easier road, with only two games remaining against plus-.500 teams, Kansas City and New England both at home, where the Jaguars are undefeated.
AFC WEST
Denver. The 7-1 Broncos have a big game Sunday against the hot 5-3 Seahawks at Mile High. They also have two games against San Diego and a home revenge match against the Raiders. But trips to Kansas City, Pittsburgh and San Francisco leave plenty of room for the 6-2 Chiefs to catch them. The Seahawks might be hot, but five of their next seven are on the road.
NFC EAST
This is the only true four-team race. If home teams win out, the Giants will beat the Cowboys. But Dallas gets three of its final four games at home including the Giants in the finale. The Cowboys’ problem is they already are 1-4 in the division, leaving little room for error. They also have the 49ers this week and the Packers Nov. 23, both on the road.
If the Redskins get healthy, they can control their fate because five of their last six games are within the division.
The Cowboys are the only team with three division games left at home. By contrast, the Giants finish at Washington, Tampa Bay, at Philadelphia, Washington, at Dallas. The key for the Cowboys is whether Barry Switzer can lead them through the adversity.
Look out for the Eagles, who statistically have the best offense and the second-best defense in the division, plus only three more games against winning teams, all at home.
NFC CENTRAL
The Packers made their second-half statement in New England and get a revenge shot at the Lions Sunday night at Lambeau.
Tampa Bay is fading and so will Minnesota now that Robert Smith is hurt. But the Vikings do have five of their last eight at home, including the Packers. If Dennis Green keeps it going, they should give him the team.
The Lions can beat anybody and lose to anybody and usually do, so a 4-4 second half would complete the pattern.
NFC WEST
The schedule gets tougher for the 49ers because it couldn’t get easier. Their seven victims have a combined record of 14-43. None of their final eight opponents is below .500. But they have five of the eight at home and should cruise to home-field advantage. They already lead the Packers in conference record. They have the No. 1 defense and expect Jerry Rice to make a miraculous return for the Monday night game against Denver, Dec. 15.
“We’ll be challenged more (against) more explosive-type offensive players and more veteran quarterbacks in the second half,” coach Steve Mariucci said. “Time will tell, but we feel we have a pretty darn good defense and an improving offense.”
The Panthers play at Denver, at San Francisco, at Dallas and have Green Bay at home. They look no better than 8-8.
PLAYOFFS
Steelers, Jaguars, Dolphins, Patriots, Broncos, Chiefs in the AFC.
Eagles, Cowboys, Packers, Vikings, Bucs, 49ers in the NFC.
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TITLE GAMES
Broncos at Steelers, Packers at 49ers.
SUPER BOWL
Packers beat Steelers.