The Bears have less than a 3 percent chance of squeezing into the playoffs. After three quarters of a season, losing teams just don’t have much of a history of reviving themselves.
Of the 72 teams that have made the playoffs under the current 12-team format started in 1990, only last season’s Chargers and the 1990 Saints have rebounded from 5-7 records to enter the postseason.
Only seven more 6-6 teams have advanced during that span, which means it’s a good idea to have a winning record entering the last quarter of the race.
Entering Monday night’s game, there were only 13 winning teams in the league, indicating that much of the suspense may be over. But Packers safety LeRoy Butler sees it differently this year.
“You can’t look at the record and figure you can go beat them. That doesn’t happen anymore,” Butler said. “I think it did five or six years ago. But regardless of the record, you need to go and win. Dallas maybe took the Giants for granted. Philly did the same thing with Arizona.”
The front-runners: If the pattern of the ’90s holds and the six winning NFC teams make the playoffs, here’s how the games shape up: Eagles at Redskins and Cowboys at Panthers for the wild-card weekend, with the 49ers and Packers getting the byes. The Packers hold the tiebreaker over the 49ers for the championship game, and here are their remaining schedules:
Packers–Bears (5-7), Broncos (11-1), at Lions (5-7), Vikings (6-6).
49ers–at Falcons (2-10), Panthers (8-4), at Steelers (8-3), Lions (5-7).
Bored and gored: The defending world champion Cowboys (7-5) continue to win only when necessary. With their proverbial backs up against the wall yet again after an embarrassing loss to the Giants, they nevertheless are 8 1/2-point favorites against the Redskins Thursday in Dallas.
Their season is a study in apathy, an exercise in just how resilient they can be:
1. Lose opener to Bears with Michael Irvin suspended for first five games.
2. Bounce back to trounce Giants 27-0.
3. Blow 18-point lead to Colts, lose by a point.
4. Lose in Buffalo by three.
5. Go to big-talking Philadelphia and win.
6. Brush off Cardinals.
7. Ditto for Falcons in close one.
8. Show ex-coach Jimmy Johnson who rules Miami.
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9. Lose at home to Eagles.
10. Beat 49ers in San Francisco.
11. Beat Packers again.
12. Sleepwalk against Giants.
They haven’t scored a touchdown for two games and still split. Now coach Barry Switzer, who made Troy Aikman angry again last week for rubbing it in against the Packers, benches Emmitt Smith in the fourth quarter after he gains only 18 yards, the same Emmitt Smith who once beat the Giants all by himself despite a dislocated shoulder.
There can be no other explanation: They are bored almost to death. They must manufacture their own challenges.
Just in time: Packers coach Mike Holmgren said he expects injured receiver Antonio Freeman back for the Bears game this Sunday, bad news for the Bears, who remember Freeman’s sensational touchdown catch in the Packers’ 37-6 romp in Soldier Field Oct. 6.
Three weeks later, Freeman suffered a forearm fracture, leaving the Packers dangerously thin at flanker. The Packers signed Andre Rison last week, and Rison caught five passes for 44 yards against the Rams Sunday.
Holmgren also said he expects tight end Mark Chmura (sprained arch) to return in two weeks for a showdown in Lambeau Field against the Broncos.
The Butler report: Kevin Butler’s season continues to go up and down with the Cardinals. After a blocked field goal, missed extra point on a mistimed snap and a 95-yard kickoff return for a touchdown, Butler watched a 29-20 lead turn into a 30-29 deficit before the Cardinals beat the Eagles 36-30.
“Yeah, I looked down and I had a hoof where my hand should be,” Butler said. “I was turning into a goat pretty quick. You know, that’s the first time in my 12 years in the league that I’ve had a kickoff returned for a touchdown against me.”
Norv’s view: Maybe it’s because he has to play the 49ers and Cowboys five days apart and doesn’t face the Packers at all, but Redskins coach Norv Turner thinks he knows who the two best teams are.
“I see (the 49ers) as being one of the better defenses I’ve seen in the last three or four years,” Turner said. “Offensively, I know people are talking about they haven’t been as productive, but they still have the guys who can move the ball and score points. They’re outstanding, and Dallas is leading the league in defense this year. We all know what they’re capable of doing offensively, so those two teams are the best two teams. I think Green Bay was finding a way to get in with those teams, and then with the injuries, that’s kept them from doing it.”
Now what? Before losing to the Cardinals, Eagles coach Ray Rhodes had a plan to stop his team’s skid.
“We’re going to go back to the trenches and put pads back on and keep them on for a while until we get the fight back in this football team. Because I’m not going to let them stop fighting. The last couple of weeks, we haven’t played with the physical toughness and mental toughness to get things done,” Rhodes said. “It gets late in the year and you’d like to take the pads off for a couple drills here and there. But it’s important we put them back on and go back to the basics and get our physical play back. We have to get our identity back.”
Rhodes’ strategy is the opposite of Detroit’s Wayne Fontes’, who routinely has his players practice without pads late in the year to preserve their health.
Recent results indicate neither plan works.
How about no practice at all?
On second thought: Last week, Oilers linebacker Joe Bowden called Miami’s Dan Marino “a god,” then changed his mind after the game.
“I can’t say he’s a god. He’s a great player, but I lost a little respect for him because of the way he cussed out the officials. I watched him growing up, and I had put him on such a pedestal, it hurt me a little to see him do that. It worked in his favor, though. He’s such a superstar, it influenced them. I’ve got to give him a lot of credit for the way he worked the refs,” Bowden said.