Northwestern 20, USC 14.
That will be the final score of the 82nd Rose Bowl on New Year’s Day, when the Wildcats will pick up in 1996 where they left off in 1995–confounding experts, naysayers and favored opponents.
Northwestern is ranked No. 3 in the nation and USC is No. 17, yet the Wildcats are 3 1/2-point underdogs. It makes no sense, even when you listen to a dispassionate specialist such as Michael “Roxy” Roxborough, who is owner and president of Las Vegas Sports Consultants.
“Remember, we don’t take or make bets,” Roxy was saying on the telephone from the Strip. “We merely establish the odds used by 75 percent of the sports books here. Now, I know you’re from Chicago and it’s a big story there.
“It’s a big story everywhere. But, look at it this way. At the start of the college football season, Northwestern was 350-to-1 to win the Rose Bowl, dead last, while USC was second at 4-1 behind only Penn State. Now, Northwestern is only a 3 1/2-point dog, down from 4 1/2 10 days ago.”
Yes, but a dog is a dog, and the Wildcats deserve better. Gone are the days when the Big Ten sends its slow and plodding conference champion to the West Coast for an ambush by a lean and fleet Pac-10 representative.
“You’re right about that,” said Roxy. “This isn’t Michigan or Ohio State going to Pasadena with only one tough game under its belt. The Big Ten is deeper than it used to be, but the overwhelming factor is still talent.
“USC was ranked No. 1 in a lot of preseason polls and just came apart after it went to Notre Dame 6-0 and lost big. Northwestern opened by beating Notre Dame and just kept winning, overachieving while USC underachieved. But, put Northwestern’s 22 starters on the field. How many of them could make USC’s lineup?”
But what about intangibles? The Wildcats play hard for 60 minutes and, as a result, posted a terrific turnover ratio. And that’s before Monday afternoon, when more than half the Rose Bowl will feature people in purple. Recall the sea of red that rooted Wisconsin to victory two years ago.
“True, the Badgers were 6 1/2-point underdogs to UCLA,” said Roxy. “But, if you’re talking intangibles, USC is worth 1 1/2 points just for playing what amounts to a home game. They’re sleeping in their own beds. Meanwhile, I see Northwestern is doing the tourist thing. Universal Studios, Disneyland. I don’t think that helps. I don’t know why they don’t wait until after the game.”
Hayden Fry, the genius from Iowa, tried that a few years ago and the Hawkeyes got slaughtered, anyway.
“But this intense media scrutiny is still relatively new to Northwestern,” said Roxy. “USC, in a major market, the players are used to it year after year. The Rose Bowl could be a huge recruiting tool for Northwestern. It’s extremely important.
“If they go there and lose, especially if they lose big, people will think all over again their season was a fluke. There still is that element of doubt about them, at least among professional gamblers. They think USC will win–the public is into the Northwestern story.
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“But the Cinderella thing can only go so far. Oregon was last year’s Northwestern. They were 17-point underdogs to Penn State, and they lost by 18. That’s just the way it is. And still, 3 1/2 points is the smallest margin USC has been favored by this season. That’s really not a lot, especially for a Northwestern team that has been underdogs so often.”
Roxy, you’re not often wrong, but you’ll be wrong about the Wildcats. They are on a mission, and they aren’t going to lose it in the sun.
“OK, how about this,” Roxy said. “The Bulls are 5-2 favorites to win the NBA. Does that make you feel better?”
Not a bit. In Chicago, we take our titles one at a time. Northwestern 20, USC 14, and you can book it.