The Bears have a 33 percent chance of making the playoffs, according to a computer calculation developed by a suburban doctor.
The calculations assume a 50-50 chance of any team winning a game regardless of home field or strength of team. If the Bears win all three of their remaining games, their chances of making the playoffs are 99 percent.
Dr. David P. Gerard of Hinsdale developed the computer program that considers all NFL tiebreaking rules short of net points. Because of that, there is up to a 1 percent margin for error. The NFL does not use a computer program to determine playoff possibilities because there are too many variables.
The notion that the Bears have to win all three of their games against Cincinnati, Tampa Bay and Philadelphia to reach the playoffs is misleading, according to the data. If they go 2-1, they have a 53 percent chance of advancing. If they win only one game, they have only a 1.1 percent chance.
The Green Bay Packers have about a 90 percent chance of winning the NFC Central Division. Detroit has about a 7 percent chance.