Back from a week of catching smallmouth bass with Al Johnson in Sister Bay, Wis., I found this urgent message from C.E. Neil McCormick of Orland Park:
“Is it possible for a team like the Cleveland Indians, 18 or 19 games ahead of their nearest opponent, to be eliminated in the playoff series? How is the wild card decided in each league?”
I’m glad you asked because the playoffs are approaching and some, perhaps many, fans may be confused with the procedure which will be in effect for the first time.
Because the National and American leagues realigned into three divisions–to eliminate byes–four teams from each league will qualify for the playoffs: three divisional winners and the second-place team with the best won-loss record.
No teams, at this point, have mathematically clinched a divisional championship, but five of the six races appear to be over.
Before Monday’s games, Cleveland had a 19-game lead in the American League Central and is a cinch. The Boston Red Sox were 11 1/2 games in front in the AL East and the California Angels, 9 1/2 in the AL West. With a month remaining in the regular schedule, they can be caught, but it isn’t likely.
In the National League, the Atlanta Braves and Cincinnati Reds appear to be runaway winners. The Braves led the East by 13 games, the Reds, the Central by 10. The only close race is in the West. The Colorado Rockies and Los Angeles Dodgers are tied for the lead, with the San Diego Padres a close third, two games out.
The race for the wild-card berths may not be determined until the final days of the season.
The clubs with the best chance in the AL are Texas (in the West) with 56 wins, Yankees (East) and Seattle (West), 53 wins, and Milwaukee (Central), 52 wins.
The Houston Astros are the current leader for the NL wild card with 57 wins. The three teams bunched at the top in the West are also possibilities. The Rockies and Dodgers have 56 wins each, the Padres 53. The Cubs (Central), with 53 victories, and Philadelphia (East), 54, are also very much alive.
Now comes the tricky part:
The first-round qualifiers meet in a preliminary five-game series, which is new. But the schedule is twisted. Under routine circumstances, the championship teams with the best records, as a reward for finishing first, would play the teams with the worst records.
This would apply if there were four divisions. But because there are three divisions, not four, there will be three first-place clubs; hence, a matchup between two divisional champions is necessary.
Compounding the confusion, the schedule-makers, after expunging the previous playoff records, concluded the final three games in a five-game series are the most crucial. And so the team that should have the home-field advantage will host the final three games.
Hence, the team that shouldn’t have the home-field advantage will have the luxury of playing the first two games in its park. This, most baseball observers believe, transfers the advantage to the lesser team. If it wins the first two games at home, only one road victory in the next three games would be needed to advance to the next round.
“It’s upside down,” said Texas manager Johnny Oates. “If you lose the first two games you have to sweep the next three. It should be the other way around.”
More Top Picks Best Multimeter
If the season had ended after Sunday’s games, the alignment would be as follows:
American League–Cleveland plays at California; Boston at Texas (which has the best second-place record.)
National League–Cincinnati at the Western Division champion (Colorado or Los Angeles); Atlanta at Houston (wild card).
There are two additional conditions: The wild card cannot have the home-field advantage in either the divisional or pennant playoffs which follows. Also, the wild-card team, in the first round, cannot be matched against a team in its division; that is, California cannot play Texas, nor can Cincinnati play Houston.
During the regular seven-game pennant playoff, also known as the league championship series, the advancing teams will have the home-field advantage in Games 1, 2, 6 and 7. This is the routine procedure. Also, it’s the NL’s turn to host the World Series, so the NL winner will play Games 1, 2, 6 and 7 at home.
Don’t feel bad if you are confused, Mr. McCormick. But this is the price for the new three-division alignments. It would have been better if the divisional standings were ignored and the four teams with the best records advance. Then it would be a simple matchup of 1 vs. 4 and 2 vs. 3.
Whatever, the new system will hype the September gate and there is the additional possibility that the Cubs, if they capture the wild card, would have a chance to win their first pennant in a half century and their first World Series in 87 years. Stranger things have happened.