Midnight revelers celebrating early election returns in Helmut Kohl’s camp had sobering news by Monday’s first light: Kohl remained the clear victor, but final results proved he has a tough fight for every vote before October’s general election.
Kohl and his Christian Democrats swept nationwide balloting for the European Parliament, but such a simple tally ignores results showing that historic political realignments are under way.
Both of Kohl’s partners in the coalition that has ruled Germany for 11 years suffered defeats in the only nationwide balloting before October’s general election.
First, the Free Democrats failed to garner the minimum 5 percent and thereby are excluded from the European Parliament. Grappling unsuccessfully for a compelling role in reunified Germany, the party won only 4 percent, down from 5.6 percent in 1989.
Second, the conservative Christian Social Union failed to win a majority in its home state of Bavaria, getting only 49 percent. If that is repeated in September’s state elections, it will be the first time in three decades that the conservative’s political machine won’t have monopoly control over local affairs.
The result is that Kohl’s coalition won 42.9 percent of the votes, far below the majority needed to control parliament and appoint a chancellor. This suggests a “grand coalition” with opposition Social Democrats might be necessary.
The Social Democrats, whose bid for the chancellorship is being thwarted not so much by Kohl as by an economy that appears to be mending, received 32.2 percent in voting for the European Parliament.
Kohl acknowledged the generally sobering news of the final election results. “Yesterday’s result does not mean we can relax,” Kohl said Monday. “We have to fight for every vote.”
Another ominous omen for Kohl’s future appeared in four of the five states of former East Germany, the “new lands” whose exuberance for reunification guaranteed the chancellor’s 1990 re-election.
In each of those four states, Kohl’s party garnered the most votes but with lower percentages than in 1990. Disgruntled voters punched the ticket for the Social Democrats, which posted muscular gains.
Voters in those states-Mecklenburg-Vorpommern, Saxony, Saxony-Anhalt and Thuringia-chose delegates to the European Parliament and elected regional councils.
As in other eastern European states, most notably Poland and Hungary, those running under the banner of reformed communism did well.