The Democratic primary election for Cook County Board president probably can’t come soon enough for front-runner Aurelia Pucinski, protecting a lead over opponents John Stroger and Maria Pappas with two months remaining in the campaign.
A new Tribune poll found that Pucinski, the county’s Circuit Court clerk, enjoys an early lead on the strength of superior name recognition and support among voters in Chicago’s white ethnic wards and in the suburbs.
But Stroger and Pappas, both commissioners on the County Board, have the ability to close the gap as they become better known and bring their better-financed campaign resources to bear, poll findings suggest.
Pappas has used her role as a County Board contrarian and an early TV advertising presence to emerge as Pucinski’s closest challenger. Stroger expects to overtake both with some potentially potent help that is waiting in the wings and with the expectation of a big black vote in his favor.
Pucinski, the poll found, has the support of 39 percent of likely Democratic primary voters, followed by Pappas with 26 percent and Stroger with 17 percent. In addition, 18 percent of the respondents said they were undecided.
At this early juncture, when voters are only vaguely aware of the issues, Pucinski’s familiarity with voters and her political experience goes a long way.
The poll found that nine of every 10 Democratic voters know of Pucinski, who is in her second term as Circuit Court clerk and previously won two countywide terms as a commissioner of the water and sewer district.
Moreover, as the daughter of Roman Pucinski, the former alderman and committeeman of the 41st Ward, she spent her adolescence and adult life in Democratic politics, running as a delegate to the Democratic National Convention every four years and failing in a 1986 bid to win the nomination for secretary of state.
In contrast, Pappas, a Chicago lawyer in her first County Board term, was known to three out of four Democratic voters, an impressive showing for a political rookie attributable to her role as an anti-administration commissioner and a modest, early TV advertising campaign.
Fewer than half, 47 percent, of Democrats were familiar with Stroger, a County Board member for two decades and chairman of the powerful Finance Committee for nine years.
Help may be on the way for Stroger from City Hall, where Mayor Richard Daley is expected to support his longtime friend and ally from the 8th Ward.
Stroger is the party’s slated candidate in the March 15 primary, and in addition to his black committeeman colleagues he has the backing of 11th Ward committeeman and County Board member John Daley, the mayor’s brother, as well as Cook County Assessor Thomas Hynes, committeeman of the 19th Ward. Earlier this week, Stroger picked up the endorsements of Democratic organizations in the lakefront 43rd and 44th Wards.
The poll results probably will help Pucinski in fundraising, her weakness in the campaign so far, but they also suggest that in a three-way race she has little room in which to expand her support. She already is known to virtually all Democratic voters and there are fewer undecided voters, 14 percent, in her white ethnic base than anywhere else in the county.
On the Northwest and Southwest Sides, Pucinski was ahead with 49 percent of the vote, compared to 27 percent for Pappas and 9 percent for Stroger. In suburban Cook County, Pucinski led 45 percent to 21 percent for Pappas and 6 percent for Stroger. Among black Democratic voters, Stroger was ahead 41 percent to 25 percent for Pucinski and 16 percent for Pappas.
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Pucinski, however, has higher negatives among black voters than either of her opponents, and elections over the last decade have shown that 80 percent or more of African-American voters will support a black candidate for major office.
Pucinski has suffered among black voters in the past because of her father’s opposition in the City Council to the late Mayor Harold Washington. But Stroger has had his own problems with African-American constituents over his loyalty to Daley.
Pappas’ stature seems to have grown with every battle she has fought with current Board President Richard Phelan, who is leaving the office to run for the Democratic gubernatorial nomination. Her television commercials early in the race also seemed to have helped her among voters. Pappas’ name recognition equals that of a current county officeholder, Sheriff Michael Sheahan.
In the Democratic primary for sheriff, incumbent Sheahan has a large edge over challenger Tommy Brewer, a Chicago lawyer. Sheahan had the support of 55 percent of likely Democratic voters, compared with 14 percent for Brewer, the poll found.
Three out of 10 voters are undecided in the sheriff’s race, giving some hope to Brewer, who ran for the office on the Harold Washington Party ticket in 1990.
Sheahan had a modest 39 percent favorable rating among those polled, but his unfavorable rating is low, 8 percent. And among black voters he had a favorable rating, 37 percent, that was more than three times greater than Brewer’s.
The Tribune poll was conducted by Market Shares Corp. of Mt. Prospect, which interviewed 580 likely Democratic voters between Jan. 5 and 9. The poll for countywide offices did not include Republican races or the Democratic clerk contest.
Alone now on the Republican side of the ballot for County Board president is Joseph Morris, a lawyer who worked in the Reagan administration. On Tuesday, Rita Mullins, the village president of Palatine, dropped out of the primary.
HOW POLL WAS DONE
The findings of this Tribune poll are based on telephone interviews with a random sample of 580 Cook County registered voters who are likely to vote in the March 15 Democratic primary.
For this size sample, one can say with 95 percent certainty that results will differ by no more than plus or minus 4 percentage points from results obtained if all likely Democratic primary voters in the county were questioned. The margin of potential error for subgroups within the larger sample is greater.
Market Shares Corp. of Mt. Prospect conducted the poll Jan. 5 and 9.