Forecasting the Suns-Bulls series could turn out to be a matter of simple arithmetic.
In the regular season, Phoenix averaged 113 points per game to 106.7 for opponents.
In the playoffs, it is down to 104 points per game-just one point more than the opposition.
In the regular season, Phoenix had seven players averaging double-figure scoring in Charles Barkley, Dan Majerle, Kevin Johnson, Richard Dumas, Cedric Ceballos, Tom Chambers and Danny Ainge.
In the playoffs, coach Paul Westphal has three: Barkley, Majerle and Johnson.
While the Bulls’ numbers have remained steady-they’ve actually increased their regular-season victory margin in the playoffs-the Suns appear to have become the incredible shrinking machine in recent weeks.
Former Bulls coach Doug Collins, who pointed out the numbers and is as familar with Phoenix as anyone in Chicago, has a theory about the Suns.
“They better win Game 1 or they might get swept,” said Collins. “This is not the same Phoenix team in March that beat Chicago in the Stadium. They’re not playing as well.
“If you think about it, the Suns were a minute away, down 95-91, from being eliminated by the Lakers (in the first round). It took a great shot by Majerle and a great shot by Barkley to get an OT.
“From Phoenix’s standpoint, it’s unbelievable that they’re in the finals.”
In fact, it does not take long talking to Collins to learn that he thinks the Bulls are well on their way to a three-peat. This observation does not come from any deep loyalty to the Bulls.
As a regular NBA analyst for Ted Turner’s network, Collins covered numerous Phoenix games this season, and that includes the Suns’ victory in the Stadium late in the season. At the time, he thought the Suns might be for real until injuries and the grueling playoff path appears to have ground them to a slower pace.
More Top Picks Best Garage Door Openers
Here’s Collins on matchups:
“Majerle cannot guard Michael Jordan. I like Dan, and I think he’s a terrific player, but he does not have the speed to stay with Michael. And now with Ceballos out, that puts Dumas on Scottie Pippen and really gives you a big question of what to do with Ainge. If you bring him in the game, he can’t guard Michael. You put him against Scottie and the Bulls will run him in the post. Phoenix has some big matchup problems.”
On the Suns’ defense:
“I think they’re better than people give them credit for. The problem they have is lapses. They do not play a full 48-minute game, and that has been their downfall. They’ll take an eight- or 10-point lead and then let teams get back in the game. You cannot do that against Chicago because you’ll need all the cushion you can get in the end because you’re always in for a furious finish with Scottie and Michael.”
On Barkley:
“I think when he gets a lead, he gets a little bored and relaxes a bit. That’s not a criticism. That’s just his personality.”
On the Suns’ offense:
“Chicago has to be careful not to try to match Phoenix’s offense because Phoenix has more of it. The Bulls might have a tendency to think, `All right. We’re out of the trenches with New York and now we can run up and down the floor.’ I think that would be a mistake, and I think the Bulls know that, too.”
On the Suns’ softness:
“They’re a tough team physically. This stuff about them being soft is simply not true. In Johnson, Majerle, Barkley, Ainge and the rest of them, they’re as tough as you’ll find.”
On the Bulls’ size advantage:
“If the Suns put a short team on the floor, they’ve got to be very careful. The Bulls could hammer them on the boards. If they go to Tom Chambers as the backup center, they’ll be short, too. This has nothing to do with toughness, though.”
And, finally, on the Eastern Conference’s dominance in the finals:
“I’ve always felt the teams in the East and West have a tendency to emulate the teams they have to beat to get out of their conferences and into the finals. If you look through the books, you go back to the Philadelphia team (in the East) in ’83 and that was a great, great defensive club. Then you had the Celtics and Pistons, like Chicago, who’ve played great defense.
“In the West, it’s basically been the Lakers in the past decade, and they were a running, fast-breaking type of team that many in the West didn’t realize was as good defensively as it was until they got into the finals, too.
“In the East, the ball has been geared more toward possessions and defense, and that is what’s paid dividends in the finals. The Eastern teams make every possession a contested one.”