Dear Diary,
Went back to the old hometown last week to talk to Rotary. It was good to be with folks who know what a scamp you are but don’t let on. The way to increase one’s stature in Pine Bluff, Ark., is to leave. Then you get to come back as an expert.
Their questions were better than my responses:
What is your overall appraisal of President-elect Clinton’s record since Nov. 3, such as his Cabinet appointments, policy statements, remarks at the economic conference?
If the presidential election were being held today, Bill Clinton would win by more than 43 percent of the popular vote. As a president-elect, he continues to prove a great presidential candidate, and may for the next four to eight years. I’ve got a steak dinner riding on his getting re-elected.
His appointments: Only his best has surprised me-Mack McLarty as his chief of staff. I was afraid McLarty would get buried as just another member of the Cabinet-Commerce or Energy. Good for Bill Clinton.
His appointments cover the political spectrum from left to about center. Left to right, they run the gamut from A to somewhere around M. On the whole, they indicate an administration that’s going to be extreme only in its moderation.
My heart leapt in anticipation at the rumor that Clinton might appoint Colin Powell secretary of state. That would have delighted and assured. Instead, he chose Warren Christopher, who is not good news. In a world where everything is changing, we’re going to have a secretary of state who hasn’t changed since he served in the Carter administration. Another Cyrus Vance, someone said. Only without the charisma. A Democratic William Rogers and about as memorable.
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Much of this administration begins to resemble the influential lobbyist-lawyers Bill Clinton campaigned against. The more things change . . . the more politics stays the same.
The honeymoon period has begun, and the Plains Syndrome that overtook Jimmy Carter hasn’t set in, and might not-because Bill Clinton is far more attuned to every oscillation in public opinion, and more likely to echo it.
Since most agree that the decisive issue of the campaign was the economy, what do you think will be the main proposals made to improve the economic situation, both short term and long term?
As Mark Twain once responded to an inquiry-Sir, I am gratified to answer your question: I do not know.
Regrettably, I am not privy to Clinton’s plans. He may have none that can’t be changed when public opinion does. In that sense, all his plans are short-term. He is an unyielding advocate of flexibility.
Bill Clinton may have been elected with the promise of reviving an economy that was in recession-indeed, in the worst shape in 50 years. But our next president is much too intelligent to believe that. Particularly in face of the evidence that a recovery has begun. The number crunchers at the Commerce Department have just decided this recession ended six quarters ago, in March of ’91, or about a month before they knew it had begun. Ain’t economics grand?
The Clinton Boom doesn’t officially start until Inauguration Day, but already it has enjoyed a kind of phenomenal retroactive success, wiping out the recession the campaign was about. Who says we can’t change the past?
Economic forecast: No great changes, except some fiddling with the tax structure, particularly in the area of capital gains and investment, which would be welcome. Way down the road, there may come a small tax cut for the middle class-a bad idea but a popular one. There are better ways to rejuvenate the economy. Mainly by cutting government outlays, not income.
The big problems: Social Security and health insurance.
Social Security was intended as an insurance program against poverty; it has become a regressive tax on one end and, at the other, a sure thing that pays big dividends. So long as the life expectancy of Americans continues to increase, we may never have a president or Congress able to reform the system.
As for health care, if the president-elect is interested in a plan that will provide universal coverage, allow Americans to take our health insurance with us wherever we go and not tie it to our jobs, give folks their choice of insurance plans from basic to deluxe, control costs through competition, and use vouchers to provide basic coverage for those too poor to pay premiums . . . all the next president has to do is call (202) 546-4400.
That’s the Heritage Foundation. Ask for Robert Moffit. Or Stuart Butler. Their plan isn’t isn’t much different from the one now in effect for federal employees. Unfortunately, it may prove ideologically unacceptable. Instead, it looks as though we’ll get price controls, a two-tier health system, more inflation and paper work, and health-care rationing.
How the next administration deals with the costs of Social Security and health care will prove a better indication of our long-term economic prospects than whether we run another deficit next year.