I don`t know what the owners will do in regard to reopening their contract with the Major League Baseball Players Association. But this much I know: When they assemble in Louisville on Dec. 7 for baseball`s annual winter convention, the big question is how much of a majority will be considered necessary before they tackle the union at the bargaining table.
According to reliable sources, 16 of the 28 clubs, 57 percent, favor an immediate reopening. Eight clubs are against. Four are on the fence. If the four undecided clubs go with the majority, the vote would be 20-8, 71 percent. Is that large enough?
”Not for me,” said a National League owner experienced in labor-management negotiations. ”I want 100 percent.”
How about 95 percent?
”Maybe. But I`d rather have 100 percent.”
Under no circumstances will unanimity be achieved.
The eight clubs against seem to be firm. They are, according to sources familiar with the controversy: Cubs, Cincinnati, Florida, Montreal, New York Mets, Baltimore, Oakland and Texas.
In favor of charging full speed ahead are the White Sox, Atlanta, Los Angeles, Philadelphia, Pittsburgh, San Diego, San Francisco, California, Cleveland, Detroit, Kansas City, Milwaukee, Minnesota, New York Yankees, Seattle and Toronto.
Undecided: Boston, Colorado, Houston and St. Louis.
A lively and conclusive debate is expected. Either side, management or labor, has the option of reopening. But a decision must be made by Dec. 11. Otherwise the contract will go into its fourth and final year and remain in effect until after the `93 season.
If it is reopened, the owners, among other things, are expected to push for a salary cap and/or revenue participation, which is almost one and the same; and adjustments in the salary arbitration and free-agent procedures.
The owners also would have the legal right to lock out the players from spring training. The players, if dissatisfied with the tone or progress of negotiations, could walk. Like the owners, they, too, would be free from the collective agreement now in place.
The fear, among some-but certainly not all-of the owners, is that the players would strike when management would be most vulnerable, in late September at the height of the pennant races, with the companion threat of cancellation of the playoffs and World Series.
”I`d love to see the players do that,” said an NL owner who requested anonymity. ”It would put public opinion on our side.”
Said another owner who is against reopening:
”The leverage shifts to the players in September. At that point they would have received two-thirds to three-fourths of their salary. But we would have only 20 to 25 percent of our television money.”
The opinion here is that the players wouldn`t strike. They are not stupid. They have just about everything they want and are eager to maintain the status quo. Eventually, the players could throw the first stone, which I doubt, but it would be after the contract runs out, not before.
Bill Giles, president and chief executive officer of the Phillies who favors reopening, supports my view.
”The people who are saying the players will strike are the people arguing against reopening,” Giles said. ”They`re trying to come up with every wrinkle they can find.”
If the contract is reopened, negotiations can be expected to consist of a blizzard of insignificant talk. Neither side will compromise until the 12th hour, which would bring us to February and March in 1994, when the season is in actual jeopardy.
Getting a new labor agreement in place as quickly as possible, Giles insists, must be the first priority.
”We can`t solve our other problems until the labor issue is behind us,” said Giles, who along with Eddie Einhorn of the White Sox and San Diego Padres` owner Tom Werner is a member of the owners` Television Committee.
”The network people have told us they won`t begin negotiating a new television package until we have our house in order. All our problems, really, are interrelated.”
More Top Picks Best Winter Puffer Jackets For Men
This includes several possible severe schedule changes, the most prominent of which would have both leagues split into three divisions to provide an extra tier of playoffs. Also being discussed is minimal regional interleague realignment, which, for example, would include games between the Cubs and White Sox, Yankees vs. Mets, etc.
Whatever adjustments are made would be an attempt to maintain the existing national television income. TV executives, citing poor ratings, are attempting to slash network revenues by as much as 40 percent.
There is also the likelihood the owners will dissolve their Player Relations Committee. This is an internal matter that should be handled with comparative ease. The PRC was formed in 1967 as a separate corporate entity and given the power to set policy and represent all the clubs at the bargaining table.
Membership is limited to six owners, three from each league, and the league presidents, who do not have a vote. This committee, in effect, has operated without interference from the ownership at large.
The original belief was that the PRC, functioning as an isolated unit, would prevent the owners from splintering. Differing opinions have surfaced, nonetheless. Also, over the years the non-member owners have complained, justifiably, that their voices are not heard.
Three weeks ago in Arizona, at his press conference wrapping up an owners meeting, Bud Selig, the commissioner pro-tem, emphasized that in the future
”we will operate more as a democracy. All the clubs will have input in the bargaining process.”
Which means goodbye, PRC. It will be dissolved during the meetings in Louisville or sometime in the near future.
There will also be the first report from the Restructuring Committee, chaired by Fred Wilpon of the Mets and Paul Beeston of the Toronto Blue Jays. The Beeston-Wilpon assignment, at this time, is of minor concern.
Their committee has been charged with rewriting the section of the Major League Agreement that specifies the powers of the commissioner. The early indications were that the commissioner`s authority would be limited to matters dealing only with the ”integrity of the game,” moral turpitude, gambling, etc.
Following the forced resignation of Commissioner Fay Vincent, the prevailing view was that the next commissioner would not have a voice in business matters. But there appears to be a change in direction. When the PRC is dismantled, the commissioner may be allowed to speak for management during labor negotiations.