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Pittsburgh manager Jim Leyland said Monday he thinks he probably will lose All-Star outfielder Barry Bonds to free agency this winter. But, then again, Leyland has a long-shot scheme for keeping Bonds.

”I`d offer him $10 million to stay for one year,” said Leyland. ”That way, you wouldn`t tie up $28 million or $32 million. You`d make him the highest-paid player in baseball. He might take it. Then, if he has another good year, you go out and pay him $10 million again or whatever it takes-but for just one year again.”

Leyland admitted the Pirates` front office would think the idea is crazy. And he doubts it would work. But he doubts, too, the Pirates can match any long-term deal another team could offer.

Pitching change: One regular who won`t start Tuesday is Pirates ace Doug Drabek.

Leyland has replaced him with Zane Smith (8-8) so Drabek can get ready for the National League playoffs. Drabek will pitch a couple of innings against the Mets on Friday in New York and then start the first game of the playoffs Oct. 6.

Surf`s up: Reliever Dave Smith rejoined the Cubs for the first time since his elbow surgery earlier this month, wearing a lime-green cast. Turns out that`s his second cast since the surgery. He had to have the other one replaced after he fell off a surfboard. Yep. Smith was relaxing near his home in California, hanging onto a surfboard and doing some bottom fishing when a halibut bit and took off, dumping Smith into the drink.

”I walked into the hospital with the cast dripping wet and seaweed hanging all over it,” said Smith. ”The nurse just looked at me and said, `I don`t want to know.` ”

Sore shoulder: Derrick May, hitless in his last four games but still batting .303 since mid-August, left Monday`s game with severe tendinitis in his right shoulder. He probably will miss the last five games of the season.