Kim Thomas voted for George Bush in 1988, but the crushing economic recession in this state has altered her dreams and changed her politics.
Thomas and her husband are holding down part-time jobs to support their two children and are trying to make ends meet on about $10,000 a year.
”I`m making the same amount of money that I made in high school,” said Thomas, now 26. ”I made five bucks an hour then and I make five bucks an hour now.”
Her story describes Bush`s political problem in New Hampshire, which will hold the nation`s first 1992 presidential primary Feb. 18.
The president is under siege in the state, which was once viewed as a model of Republican prosperity and gave him a crucial primary victory in 1988. Last spring, in the aftermath of the Persian Gulf war, polls showed that Bush was as popular in this state as he was throughout the country despite a New Hampshire economy gone sour.
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But the war is a memory now, and the economic gloom has deepened across New England.
A Boston Globe poll of registered New Hampshire voters two weeks ago reported that three of four surveyed believed the country had ”gotten off on the wrong track.” And more than 70 percent of the respondents said they disapproved of Bush`s handling of the economy.
The president`s re-election campaign office opened Thursday in Manchester, two days after conservative commentator Patrick Buchanan said he would challenge Bush in the state`s Republican primary.
Buchanan has cast his challenge in this GOP stronghold as a battle for the conservative soul of the party. But political professionals believe the bombastic columnist and TV personality is more likely to draw support from voters irate and frustrated over pocketbook issues.
The jobless rate in Manchester, less than 2.5 percent four years ago, has jumped to about 7 percent, and the Granite State is setting depressing standards for personal bankruptcies and bank closings: In the first quarter of 1991, personal bankruptcies were up 94 percent over the same period a year earlier; five of the state`s seven largest banks have had to reorganize.
Applications for food stamps have increased by more than 50 percent in the last year, and the state`s caseload for Aid to Families with Dependent Children is the fastest-growing in the nation.
”All these stories were out here, even during the gulf war-the foreclosures, the auctions, boarded-up businesses,” said former state Democratic Chairman George Bruno. ”But nobody was talking much about it. Now there`s nothing else to talk about.”
Voices across New Hampshire-many of the same voices that helped lift Bush`s candidacy four years ago-now carry harsh words for the president.
It was here that Bush, with the help of then-Gov. John Sununu, salvaged his presidential campaign after his embarrassing third-place finish behind Sen. Bob Dole of Kansas and evangelist Pat Robertson in the Iowa caucuses.
Bush`s 1988 primary victory was based on his ability to convince New Hampshire Republicans that he was indeed the heir to Ronald Reagan and his conservative economic notions.
Now that trust appears broken.
”I`d vote for Santa Claus, Howdy Doody or Mickey Mouse before I`d vote for Bush,” said John Whitney, 75, who calls himself a ”lifelong
Republican.”
Rachel Kelly, a 51-year-old registered Democrat from Nashua who voted for Bush last time, said she has been laid off twice from jobs in retail sales.
”I don`t know who I`m for,” Kelly said, ”but I know I`m not for George Bush. He`s ineffective and he`s hurt the economy.”
Opinions about Bush often reflect the economic well-being of the prospective voter.
”I think I will vote for Bush because my pocketbook is OK and I think he did all right in the Middle East,” said Michael Parmenter, a 34-year-old printer in Merrimack.
Conversations with dozens of New Hampshire residents echoed such respect for Bush`s handling of the gulf war and for his foreign policy skills in general.
And not all voters` anger is aimed at the White House: Many argue that the Democratically controlled Congress deserves an equal share of the blame for the economic mess.
Nevertheless, it is the presidential election campaign that will be the vehicle for their discontent.
Michael McEntyre, an unemployed cook from Nashua, said he didn`t vote in the last election but is looking for a Democrat to support in `92.
”I didn`t care (about voting) last time, but I care now because we`re hurting here,” said McEntyre, 32.
Out of work for six months, McEntyre said he has ”scratched by” with his wife and two children on public assistance. They have sold their car and now number among the estimated 35 million Americans without health insurance. Bruno, who is working for Arkansas Gov. Bill Clinton in the Democratic presidential derby, believes that Buchanan`s entry into the Republican primary race will help Democrats who are struggling to reach disaffected voters with their message.
No one expects Buchanan to defeat Bush, but eight weeks of attacks from the Republican right wing and the Democrats can only diminish the president.
Despite voter anger at Bush, there is little evidence of a Democratic surge in a state that has not been in the Democratic presidential column since 1964.
In the 1988 general election, New Hampshire voters gave Bush a 63-36 percent victory over Democratic Gov. Michael Dukakis of Massachusetts, and the state remains fundamentally conservative, with a profound anti-tax bias.
Still, Democrats are hopeful they can damage Bush here in a Republican redoubt, and campaign rhetoric from the six declared Democratic candidates has been personal and pointed.
”George Bush took your votes and then forgot about New Hampshire,”
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Clinton told an audience of Democrats last month.
Former Massachusetts Sen. Paul Tsongas, a Democrat who is well-organized in this state, has challenged Bush to return to New Hampshire and defend his policies.
Republican Buchanan pushed the same theme in his announcement speech.
”The White House answer to the recession . . . is to deny that we have a recession,” he said. ”Well, let them come to New Hampshire.”
When Bush comes here-and he said Thursday that he would campaign in New Hampshire next month-he will find a collapsed economy and a host of alienated voters like Kim Thomas.
Pushing a stroller with her 19-month-old daughter in a Manchester shopping mall, Thomas said she has been laid off from three jobs in the last two years. In a weary voice, she said she is trying to earn a college degree in accounting while working part-time in a bookstore.
She feels trapped by her circumstances; the family`s telephone was turned off recently, so she takes calls at her parents` house.
More important, she worries about the prospect of splitting up her family for economic reasons.
If she were a single parent, Thomas and her children would be eligible for increased governmental assistance. And if she dropped out of college and surrendered her grant money, Thomas said, she could qualify for government housing aid and food stamps.
Her family`s plight, she believes, is lost on Bush.
”He`s kind of snobbish,” Thomas said.