Crystal baseball: We interrupt that championship season of the Cubs and White Sox to bring a minority report from Bill James: ”IT AIN`T GONNA HAPPEN!”
The sport`s best-known analyst says in his book, ”The Baseball Book 1991,” that the Cubs, because they didn`t improve their on-base percentage, are destined to finish third or fourth. It gets worse. James likes the Mets in the NL East.
The White Sox? He has them tagged for a sub-.500 year and fifth-place finish, with Oakland repeating as champs. Here are more of James` observations in his annual preseason look at the major leagues:
– George Bell will regain his top hitting form in Wrigley Field, where he`ll parallel Andre Dawson`s achievements.
– He would have given last year`s American League Gold Glove Award at shortstop to Toronto`s Tony Fernandez (now with San Diego) instead of Ozzie Guillen. He calls Guillen ”an overrated player.”
– Ryne Sandberg ranks with Willie Mays ”as the closest thing I have ever seen to a perfect player.”
– He rated Frank Thomas as the best offensive player in the big leagues last year for those who batted between 100-400 times. Thomas can rank as a hitter with Jose Canseco and Eddie Murray before his career is concluded.
– On Luis Salazar: ”He would be a good bench player, but it`s a disgrace to have him in the lineup on a regular basis.”
– Carlton Fisk is good for another four years, barring major injury.
– Jim Frey is a ”doofus” for last year`s handling of pitcher Lance Dickson. – Will Bobby Thigpen`s record of 57 saves ever be topped? Yes. James sees the mark eventually settling between 80-90 saves if current trends-and conditions- continue.
– Mike Harkey has a good chance to be among the best starting pitchers in the National League.
– Tim Raines hasn`t been a player comparable to Rickey Henderson for three years, but he has a good chance to regain that status with the Sox returning him to the leadoff spot.
– Shawon Dunston is the NL`s third-best shortstop behind Barry Larkin and Ozzie Smith.
– Jack McDowell will win 17 games and become the Sox`s best pitcher in the 1990s.
– Alex Fernandez can have a great career if the Sox don`t ”work him too hard before his arm is mature, and destroy him in the long run.”
– The move from the Astrodome to Wrigley Field will see pitcher Dave Smith`s totals take a jump.
– Looking back: OK, how seriously should we take Bill James` observations?
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Let`s go back and pick up a few of his observations from ”The Baseball Book 1990,” when he picked Toronto and Oakland to win the AL divisions, New York and San Diego to take the NL flags, Cubs to finish second (they were fifth), and Sox to finish sixth (they were second). Well, he got one out of six. More from the `90 book about last season:
– James predicted that with a .182 major league average, Doug Dascenzo was capable of hitting .250 last season. He hit .253.
– He thought Dave Gallagher should be on the Sox`s bench. Instead, he went to Baltimore on waivers.
– ”Assuming that there is a good chance that Mitch Williams will fall apart as a relief ace, there must be some chance . . . that Paul Assenmacher will emerge as a relief ace.” Close, but half a cigar.
– On Scott Fletcher: ”A solid player . . . with some risk that his bat will continue to droop.” His average slipped from .253 in `89 to .242 in `90.
– On Mike Bielecki: ”I see no reason that he shouldn`t remain an effective pitcher.” He didn`t.
– If the Sox play Lance Johnson as the leadoff man and in left, he`ll hit around .300, steal more than 50 bases and score 85-90 runs. Johnson played center field, led off against right-handers, batted .285, stole 36 bases and scored 76 runs.
– James projected Mark Grace as ”one of the 15 to 20 most valuable properties in the game” and said he would hit .300. He hit .309.
– Carlos Martinez`s .300 average as a rookie in `89 was ”over his head.” He hit .224 last year.
– Dwight Smith could lead the NL in hitting if he gets away from a platoon role. In 117 games, he batted .262.