That inexact art (or is it a science?) of prophecy is best left to those who hoard crystal balls. But predictions, they are part of sport`s lifeblood, and so let us indulge ourselves here and take a look ahead. Let us look ahead to Sunday, March 11, the Sunday the NCAA Division I Men`s Basketball Committee (to give it its full and proper name) announces the 64 teams it has invited to its celebrated postseason party.
They are not invitations that are tendered lightly, and they are sent out only after that nine-man committee spends nearly 72 hours sequestered in a Kansas City, Mo., hotel room surrounded by all kinds of graphs and flow charts and power ratings. They eat room service, are wholly inaccessible to potential lobbyists and know going in that some of their decisions will be questioned or belittled and that some of them will be denigrated.
Now, of course, some of those decisions are easy. Thirty conferences play their own postseason tournaments, and 28 of those champions receive automatic bids (the exceptions are the American South and the Big South). Automatic bids also go to the regular-season champions of the Big 10 and the Ivy League, which do not yet hold those money-making fests.
But then, then come those questions whose answers will be questioned. For example, should a team that finishes below .500 in its league receive a bid no matter what its overall record is? Now there`s a question that could well involve Indiana, which currently sits 6-7 in the Big 10 with Michigan State
(on Sunday), Minnesota, Wisconsin, Ohio State and Illinois still remaining on its schedule. Go further now and surmise that the Hoosiers go 2-3 over that stretch, which is a real possibility, and they finish 8-10 in conference play, 18-10 overall.
Invite `em, one side will say. They were undefeated outside the conference, and the Big 10`s the toughest league in the country.
Forget `em, others will say. If you can`t break even in your own conference, no matter how tough it is, you don`t deserve a bid.
But, say I, the cynical scribe, think what happens if they don`t get a bid. They get invited, for sure, to the NIT, and do you really think the NCAA wants a high-profile team such as Indiana in its competitor`s tourney?
Take that same dose of reality and apply it to Notre Dame, and the ripple-down effect raises more interesting questions. Say the Irish, not yet assured a bid, upset No. 1 Missouri Saturday but lose again to De Paul March 10. What then?
Do you invite the Irish, who will have posted two major upsets (Syracuse being the other) while playing one of the nation`s toughest schedules?
And if you invite them, doesn`t De Paul deserve an invite as well on the strength of its own schedule and its two victories over Notre Dame?
And if you invite both of them, what might happen to a team such as Ball State? The Cardinals are on track to win the Mid-American title, but what happens if they are upset in their conference tourney and left without an automatic bid? Their overall record will still be better than Notre Dame`s or De Paul`s, but how much will their less-difficult schedule weigh against them? And how much will their low profile be held against them? And how much easier will it be for the NCAA to leave them for the NIT, and instead choose those TV darlings from South Bend and Chicago?
This is, you now see, an avenue that the angels would fear to tread, but with these and other questions hovering over us like cigar smoke, we plunge ahead. To wit:
– Pick seven teams from the Big 10. Purdue, Michigan State, Michigan, Minnesota, Illinois, Ohio State and, yes, Indiana. The logic is based on the system, which is this: After a conference champion is handed its automatic bid, the league`s remaining teams are, in essence, at-large candidates matched against the some 260 others looking for invites. Through strength of schedule (or strength of conference, which here is the same thing), the Big 10 gets what it thinks it deserves.
– Select six from the Big East. Georgetown, Connecticut, Syracuse, St. John`s, Providence and Villanova. The Wildcats are about as consistent as Chicago`s weather, but after their victory last Wednesday over Temple, they need only another over lowly Boston College to assure themselves a spot.
– Find five in the Atlantic Coast. Duke, Clemson, Georgia Tech, North Carolina and Virginia. The Cavaliers appear headed toward a sub-.500 finish in conference play, but, again, the prowess of their conference should help them sneak in. In addition, Cavaliers coach Terry Holland is moving on to become Davidson`s athletic director after this season, and sentiment has never hurt anyone`s cause.
More Top Picks How To Request An Independent Educational Evaluation Iee
– Select a surprising five from the Pac-10. Oregon State, Arizona, California, UCLA and Stanford. After spending most of the last decade in the dumpster, the conference proves West Coast basketball is on the way back.
– As do four from the Big West. Nevada-Las Vegas, New Mexico State, Cal-Santa Barbara and Long Beach State. These selections also prove that there is life in this group after the Runnin` Rebs.
– Also take four from the Big Eight. Missouri, Kansas, Oklahoma and Kansas State. The first three, Top 10 teams all, are locks, but the Wildcats are riding the bubble. They appear headed toward a .500 finish within their conference, yet they did upset Missouri and Oklahoma, and that should stand in their favor.
– Take three from the Metro. Louisville, Cincinnati and Memphis State. The Cardinals are an annual entry, the Bearcats are one of the season`s pleasant surprises, and the Tigers probably assured themselves of a spot with their upset of Louisville last Tuesday.
– And three more from the Southeastern. Louisiana State, Georgia and Alabama. Kentucky`s on probation, Florida`s in disarray, and this conference, which often provides a surprise tourney team, is, in general, suffering from a down season.
– An additional three from the Southwest. Arkansas, Texas and Houston. The Razorbacks and the Longhorns played two wonderful games, and Arkansas could just sneak into the Final Four.
– And a final three from the Western Athletic. Brigham Young, Hawaii and Texas-El Paso. This group`s acronym is the WAC, and it`s wacky enough to make this pick especially risky. The wild card is Colorado State, which could replace one of the other three or get a fourth invite for this generally underrated conference.
– As for those conferences likely to receive but one bid each, look for:
Northern Iowa out of the AMCU. Southwest Missouri State figures to be the league champion, but the Panthers host, and so should win, the conference tourney.
Temple out of the Atlantic 10. Someone has to go, and the Owls get the nod even though they`re a miserable 2-7 outside the conference.
Idaho out of the Big Sky and James Madison out of the Colonial. The Dukes` presence in the tourney will swing the spotlight onto the well-known bald head of Lefty Driesell, last viewed coaching Maryland.
Towson State out of the East Coast, which once this season had seven teams tied for first, and out of the Ivy, Princeton. One of the most entertaining moments of any NCAA tourney is watching a reputed power deal with the Tigers` overall precision and precise cutting game. Pete Carril, their genius of a coach, is worth watching, too.
La Salle out of the Metro Atlantic, Ball State out of the MAC, Coppin State out of the Mid-Eastern and Xavier out of the Midwestern Collegiate. The Musketeers have a big-time player in Tyrone Hill, a wily coach in Pete Gillen and the capacity to make life miserable for any unsuspecting opponent.
Creighton out of the Missouri Valley, Boston University out of the North Atlantic and Robert Morris out of the Northeast. Monmouth looks as if it will win that last conference`s regular-season title, but the Colonials get the nod because they host, and should win, the league tourney.
Murray State out of the Ohio Valley, East Tennessee State out of the Southern, Northeast Louisiana out of the Southland, Southern out of the Southwestern, Alabama-Birmingham out of the Sun Belt, Texas-San Antonio out of the Trans America and point-per-half-minute Loyola Marymount out of the always-fun West Coast.
– Which leaves us one spot to fill, and the hunch here gives it to Notre Dame. Now the Irish must pray, really pray, that something unexpected doesn`t happen. That, for example, Marquette doesn`t win the MCC tourney, which would give the Warriors an automatic bid and that conference a second team in the tourney.
For Xavier, you see, is good enough to get invited no matter what, and so such a tiny twist of fate could doom the Irish`s chances. On the other hand, another twist another way, and the door opens for De Paul, which is why, come Sunday, March 11, that nine-man basketball committee will be answering questions about the answers it just provided.