There always was a possibility this reunion between the Chicago Cubs and Jake Arrieta would end poorly.
That’s the inevitable risk that comes with a former Cy Young Award winner in the twilight of his career returning to the franchise with which he experienced his greatest personal success and helped end a 108-year World Series title drought.
So in mid-February, when Arrieta agreed to a one-year, $6 million contract that includes a mutual option for next year, a second stint with the organization — good or bad — would become the final memory for Cubs fans.
“As far as a legacy goes, I don’t put a lot of thought into that,” Arrieta said in February after he signed. “I think that’s more something that you might put some attention to as your career comes to an end. But I think I’ve got quite a bit left to offer in this game, and that’s really what I look forward to.”
On a muggy Tuesday night before 30,095 at Wrigley Field, as Arrieta walked off to somber applause and a smattering of boos, this chapter of his Cubs career seemed to be in its last pages.
He couldn’t get out of the second inning in a 15-10 loss to the Philadelphia Phillies, the team that gave him the big contract the Cubs wouldn’t after the 2017 season. Arrieta became the first Cubs starter since Mike Harkey (Sept. 22-28, 1993) to pitch two innings or less and allow six-plus runs in consecutive starts.
Asked after Tuesday’s performance if his career is nearing its end, he adamantly disagreed.
“Not even close,” Arrieta responded. “This sucks, really it does. But I’m not going to hang my head. I’m going to continue to work. I’m going to do whatever needs to be done. The stuff is too good. I still have a lot left in the tank, there’s no question about that.”
The outing became a disaster from the first pitch Arrieta threw, which nestled into the left-field ivy for a ground-rule double. By the time Andrew McCutchen stepped to the plate, the Phillies had loaded the bases with nobody out. A 91.7 mph sinker Arrieta left down the middle landed in the first row of the center-field bleachers for a grand slam.
He came out in the second after allowing five of the first seven Phillies hitters to reach. Again with the bases loaded, Rhys Hoskins delivered the decisive blow. His two-run double knocked Arrieta out of the game with the Cubs trailing 7-0. Only 28 of his 55 pitches went for strikes.
His final line in the Cubs’ 11th consecutive loss: seven runs, six hits, two walks and four strikeouts in 1? innings.
Tuesday marked the second straight start Arrieta failed to get through the second inning. His previous start featured an implosion against the division-leading Milwaukee Brewers, failing to take advantage of a 7-0 lead the offense handed him in the first inning. By the time he exited, the Brewers had tagged him for six runs (three earned) in 1? innings.
Afterward, manager David Ross, asked about reassessing Arrieta’s spot in the rotation, noted the Cubs would reset with last Thursday’s day off and added: “I don’t know who we would replace him with.”
Facing the same question after Tuesday’s loss, Ross said, “I’ve got to look at that.”
“We’ve got a lot going on, 11 losses in a row. I think there’s a lot to look at,” Ross continued. “I’ll wrap my brain around this one tonight and try to attack the problems in the morning.”
Figuring out the answer to that question must be a priority for the Cubs. Even as they crater in the National League Central standings, they can’t continue to start Arrieta every fifth game when he’s not giving them competitive starts. Any hope of Arrieta building a modicum of trade value before July 30 has evaporated.
“We don’t think mechanically it’s anything that he needs to work on,” Ross said over the weekend. “He needs to get in the zone a little bit more. He feels good, he just needs to get to expecting good outcomes. When things aren’t going well, even with a guy with his track record, you can get down on yourself. Things can start working a little quick.”
After Tuesday’s brief outing, Arrieta has an 8.55 ERA over his last 12 starts with the Cubs going 3-9 in those games. Among the 127 major-league starters with at least 50 innings pitched this season, Arrieta’s minus-0.6 Wins Above Replacement (WAR) ranks last.
Ross pointed to a lack of sharpness to Arrieta’s secondary stuff and continued command issues for his struggles against the Phillies.
“If we knew, we’d try to fix that,” Ross said. “Right up to now, I’m not sure. I have to go back and watch some stuff.”
Arrieta’s would-be next start aligns with Sunday’s first-half finale at home versus the St. Louis Cardinals. Maybe the Cubs decide to ride out the situation and then make changes after the All-Star break. For those who saw Arrieta during his first go-around with the Cubs, the two versions might be tough to reconcile.
“I still feel like there’s a better version of him in there somewhere,” Ross said. “It’s on him and us to try to figure out how to unlock that. I’ve seen too many good outings to believe this version of him — and maybe that’s me being naive — but I know that there’s more in there.
“This guy’s meant so much to the franchise, to me personally, it’s a hard thing for me to wrap my brain around.”
Still, it’s difficult to envision the Cubs sticking with the status quo. Right-hander Trevor Williams would be a convenient option to slide into Sunday’s start. Williams, who was activated from the injured list before Tuesday’s game, gave up seven runs (three earned) in 3? innings out of the bullpen. Starting Williams would buy time for the Cubs to figure out where to go from here with Arrieta.
One path the Cubs could take is stretching out left-hander Justin Steele, currently on rehab assignment at Triple-A Iowa. The Cubs’ dramatic fall out of first place and approaching seller status at the trade deadline presents an opportunity to get a look at players who can help them in the future.
Steele and right-hander Keegan Thompson qualify. Building them up to get starts in the second half is an obvious choice. Williams, whose numbers weren’t great before being sidelined by an appendectomy, can be a placeholder in the meantime.
Breakups are hard when there is history like that between the Cubs and Arrieta. It’s hard to see how they have a path forward together.
“There’s no storybook ending that’s just magically going to be written,” Arrieta said. “We have to create that as a group and I have to be a big part of that as an individual. That’s as simple as I could put it, you know? Whatever needs to be done will get done. That’s all I can say.”
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