The Chicago Cubs — the No. 3 seed in the National League after winning the NL Central — will face the Miami Marlins at Wrigley Field to open the postseason.
So who has the edge in the best-of-three wild-card series that starts Wednesday?
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Starting pitching
Sandy Alcantara led the Marlins with six quality starts despite missing three weeks because of a positive COVID-19 test. Much of the buzz has hovered around Sixto Sanchez, the centerpiece of a trade with the Philadelphia Phillies for catcher J.T. Realmuto before the 2019 season. Sanchez has limited left-handed hitters to a .531 OPS but has allowed nine runs on 12 hits in seven innings over his last two starts. Pablo Lopez has an exceptional changeup.
Cubs starter Kyle Hendricks has faced Jacob deGrom, Clayton Kershaw, Corey Kluber, Stephen Strasburg and Yu Darvish in the postseason, so the expectations of the Game 1 assignment should not affect him. Darvish regained the effectiveness of his cut fastball in his last start to put the finishing touches on a Cy Young Award-caliber season. Jon Lester faces a short hook with a season at stake.
Edge: Cubs
Relief pitching
Former Cubs reliever Brandon Kintzler struck out only 14 in 24? innings for the Marlins, but he earned 12 saves and had a 2.22 ERA in 24 games. Brad Boxberger’s average fastball jumped from 90.6 mph last season to 92.9, according to FanGraphs. Yimi Garcia has limited right-handed batters to a .125 average, and left-handers are batting .217 against him. Garcia gave up just one run in 14 appearances.
Craig Kimbrel’s fastball topped out at 99 mph Saturday. Kimbrel and closer Jeremy Jeffress, who allowed only one of 11 inherited runners to score, have helped a largely inexperienced Cubs bullpen develop into one of the National League’s best.
Edge: Cubs
Offense
Marlins leadoff batter Corey Dickerson has only a .311 on-base percentage. Dickerson, like Cubs first baseman Anthony Rizzo, will choke up on the bat with two strikes. The Marlins were second to the San Diego Padres with 60 stolen bases, with No. 9 hitter Jon Berti tied with Jonathan Villar for the team lead with nine. Berti also has a .388 on-base percentage. Shortstop Miguel Rojas was described by one NL East rival as the Marlins’ best player because of his steady play. Starling Marte hit four home runs and drove in 13 in 28 games after being acquired from the Arizona Diamondbacks, and he helped fortify a batting order that includes third baseman and team home run leader Brian Anderson (11).
Leadoff batter Ian Happ carried the Cubs offense through the first six weeks, but his on-base percentage has dipped from .423 on Sept. 5 to .361. Happ, however, was able to rest his sore ankle after the Cubs clinched the NL Central. He leads the Cubs with an .866 OPS. The Cubs scored 25 runs in their last three games. They scored 25 or more runs in a three-game span on two other occasions but still finished 10th in the NL in runs. Their .705 OPS was the same as the second half of the 2018 season.
Edge: Marlins
Defense/intangibles
Brian Anderson and Miguel Rojas form a strong left side of the infield. The Marlins rebounded from 20 positive COVID-19 tests and a minus-41 run differential to finish second in the NL East. Veteran Matt Joyce and Lewis Brinson share right field duties for the Marlins. Infielder Jazz Chisholm, one of the organization’s top prospects who was promoted earlier this month and once drew comparisons to Javier Baez, has struck out 19 times in 56 at-bats.
Cameron Maybin and Billy Hamilton were timely additions for the Cubs because of their experience and speed. David Bote emerged as the Cubs’ RBI leader (29) in only 125 at-bats. The Cubs sputtered after a 13-3 start but remained resilient thanks to an improved bullpen and Yu Darvish’s ability to stop losing streaks with dominant pitching. Both dugouts are boisterous, so don’t be surprised if emotions escalate.
Edge: Cubs
Manager
One veteran NL scout admired the way Marlins manager Don Mattingly has handled his bullpen and implemented an aggressive offensive style leaning on hit-and-run plays and stolen bases at the suggestion of Hall of Famer and CEO Derek Jeter.
First-year manager David Ross has been lauded by Cubs President Theo Epstein and his players for providing sound leadership. The playoffs present a different landscape, but Ross has managed with a greater sense of urgency recently that cannot hurt him in a must-win situation.
Edge: Marlins
Prediction
Mark Gonzales: Cubs in 2.
Paul Sullivan: Cubs in 3.