Though Chicago’s mayoral election is still about a month away, the race may already seem over for Mayor Lori Lightfoot. Polling by The Harris Poll shows city residents widely rebuking her, with three-quarters of likely voters agreeing that the city would be better off with a new mayor. But it’d be a mistake to write her off.
Lightfoot, or almost any of the eight other candidates, could still come out on top. Victory requires a straightforward, though daunting, task. The candidate must persuade voters that she or he is the tough leader our poll respondents say the city needs to meaningfully reduce violence and deal with the other social and economic afflictions that are diminishing the quality of life in Chicago.
The incumbent hasn’t been able to do that yet. But then again, neither has anyone else. Which explains why, along with stock answers such as not knowing enough about the candidates’ platforms or backgrounds, almost half of registered Chicago voters still haven’t settled on their pick for mayor in the Feb. 28 election.
It’s not like our respondents to dither. Our representative panel of Chicagoans has been clear and consistent over the past months — often by supermajorities and across all demographic groups — on the most critical issues, on the city’s trajectory and on the job requirements of the next mayor. That consensus continues in our most recent survey, conducted online in mid-December.
Chicagoans almost uniformly agree on:
The issues: Public safety is the electorate’s top concern, with 95% of voters citing it. At least 9 out of 10 also checked off the local business economy (94%), health care access (94%), local government leadership (91%), and taxes and fees (90%) as issues of importance. Two-thirds, moreover, think that Chicago is worse off when it comes to crime and taxes than other places in the U.S.
The city’s trajectory: Few voters have high hopes for postelection Chicago. Less than a third foresee improvement five years from now on most key issues, and more think things will actually get worse than better when it comes to affordable housing, public safety, and taxes and fees. There’s optimism, however, about jobs, with 30% foreseeing better days ahead versus 19% predicting worse.
The job requirements: Chicago’s next mayor needs to be strong. Almost unanimously (94%), voters agree the city is facing issues that require a firm leader to address. Similarly, 84% agree that Chicago’s leader needs to be tougher than mayors in other cities. Those who plan to cast their vote next month are looking for honesty (75%), trustworthiness (73%), integrity (63%) and leadership experience (61%) from mayoral candidates. Charm, likability and endorsements don’t really matter.
In the 2019 mayoral runoff, when violence and affordable housing, along with city finances and policing, also were top issues, Lightfoot ran as a reformer and outsider and won in a landslide. But today, our polling shows that as the incumbent, Lightfoot runs a real risk of becoming the next Jane Byrne, that rare Chicago mayor voted out of office after only one term.
To fully assess voters’ judgment of Lightfoot, we asked three questions directly or indirectly about her. Asked whether Chicago would be better off with a different mayor, 74% of likely voters agreed. Asked whether Lightfoot deserves to be reelected, 64% said no. And asked if they were satisfied with her performance as mayor, 7% said they were very satisfied, and 14% said they were somewhat satisfied.
So far, though, many likely voters don’t seem convinced that any of the other candidates has the character, credentials and capability to do the job and fix what needs fixing: In our poll, 47% said they have not yet decided for whom they’re going to vote.
Such a large group of on-the-fence voters gives Lightfoot an opening to win. The 21% of voters at least somewhat satisfied with her tenure, in fact, could be enough for her to place among the top two vote-getters on Feb. 28 and go on to the likely runoff election in April. (She finished first among 14 candidates in the 2019 general election with 17.5% of the vote .)
Apathy is a factor too. Turnout has been slumping in municipal elections, to a record low of 32% of registered voters in 2019. Unless candidates begin to inspire them, it’s safe to say that at least some of the registered voters who told us they plan to vote in the mayoral election won’t do so.
Who that helps — or hurts — isn’t certain.
The one thing we do know for sure, based on our polls, is that Chicago voters are deeply worried about how their city has sunk and how it seems to be sinking even further. They want a can-do leader who will make Chicago the peaceful and prosperous world-class city it deserves to be.
Here’s a call to that candidate: Make yourself known — now.
Will Johnson is the Chicago-based CEO of The Harris Poll, one of the world’s leading public-opinion research firms
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