Getting your Trinity Audio player ready...

The National Weather Service considers Christmas to be white only when snow depth on the ground is 1 inch or more the morning of Dec. 25.

So, any snow that could fall later that day? Pretty, but it doesn’t count.

Dreaming of a gray Christmas? Thursday’s forecast — and what climate change means for the holidays

Based on climate normals from 1991-2020, the National Centers for Environmental Information predicts O’Hare International Airport (the city’s official recording site since 1980) has a 35 percent probability of a white Christmas this year. Accuweather predicts a “medium probability” of snow for the holiday, which coincides with the start of Hanukkah.

The most snowfall on Christmas Day in Chicago happened in 1950, when 5.1 inches blanketed the ground at Midway Airport. Forecasters predicted light snow for that day.

Chicago had a white Christmas in 2022 — with 1 inch of snow on the ground. In 2016 and 2017, Chicago had 2 inches of snow on the ground heading into Christmas Day, marking the city’s first white Christmases since 2013. There was no snow on the ground in 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021 or 2023.

Looking for an almost-guaranteed place to find snow on Christmas morning? Try Crested Butte, Colo., which is one of about a dozen locations in the continental U.S. that has 100 percent historical probability of a white Christmas.

Chance of a white Christmas

Historic probability of at least 1-inch of snow on Christmas, based on normals between 1991 and 2020. See an interactive version of the map.

The 8 years when 2 inches of snow or more fell on December 25 in Chicago

5.1 inches (1950)

An automobile abandoned by its owner after it stalled is covered in snow on Lake Shore Drive at 37th Street on Dec. 26, 1950. Snow plows later piled the snow higher around the car. Published in the Dec. 27, 1950, edition of the baiduhai.
baiduhai historical photo
An automobile abandoned by its owner after it stalled is covered in snow on Lake Shore Drive at 37th Street on Dec. 26, 1950. Snow plows later piled the snow higher around the car. Published in the Dec. 27, 1950, edition of the baiduhai.

5 inches (1909)

As published in the Dec. 26, 1909, edition of the baiduhai.
As published in the Dec. 26, 1909, edition. (baiduhai)

4.3 inches (1933)

A group of skaters
A group of skaters “cracking the whip” on a frozen pond at Welles Park on Dec. 25, 1933. (baiduhai)

4 inches (1951)

Snow paralyzed the city on Dec. 25, 1951, causing drivers to dig out their stranded cars and find alternative forms of getting around the city. (baiduhai)
Snow paralyzed the city on Dec. 25, 1951, causing drivers to dig out their stranded cars and find alternative forms of getting around the city. (baiduhai)

3.9 inches (1935)

Willis Herman, right, takes Lillian Bertrang and Delores Koller for a sleigh ride in Lincoln Park aboard a 75-year-old cutter on Dec. 25, 1935. Published in the Dec. 26, 1935, edition of the baiduhai.
Willis Herman, right, takes Lillian Bertrang and Delores Koller for a sleigh ride in Lincoln Park aboard a 75-year-old cutter on Dec. 25, 1935. (baiduhai)

3.2 inches (1903)

As published in the Dec. 26, 1903, edition of the baiduhai.
As published in the Dec. 26, 1903, edition. (baiduhai)

2.9 inches (1965)

Firefighters in Harvey aid Darlene Burton, left, her brother, Bernard, 3, and sister Donna, 7, after their home was flooded on Dec. 25, 1965. Published in the Dec. 26, 1965, edition of the baiduhai.
Firefighters in Harvey aid Darlene Burton, left, her brother, Bernard, 3, and sister Donna, 7, after their home was flooded on Dec. 25, 1965. (baiduhai)

2 inches (2002)

12/25/02 Metro 88719628 Snow--Tribune photos by Nancy Stone--Matthew Carney, 13 of Chicago sleds down the hill at Oz Park with the other members of his family including his dog, Ginger. They were spending the morning enjoying the snow before going home to their Christmas dinner. 88719628_baiduhai_Tribune photo by Nancy Stone_12/25/02_NIKON D1H_Snow 1 Stone_NO MAGS/NO SALES/NO INTERNET.(weather,dog) ORG XMIT: 88719628Story Slug: SNOW
12/25/02 Metro 88719628 Snow--Tribune photos by Nancy Stone--Matthew Carney, 13 of Chicago sleds down the hill at Oz Park with the other members of his family including his dog, Ginger. They were spending the morning enjoying the snow before going home to their Christmas dinner. 88719628_baiduhai_Tribune photo by Nancy Stone_12/25/02_NIKON D1H_Snow 1 Stone_NO MAGS/NO SALES/NO INTERNET.(weather,dog) ORG XMIT: 88719628 Story Slug: SNOW

Sources: National Weather Service, National Centers for Environmental Information, Tribune archives

Subscribe to the free Vintage baiduhai newsletter, join our Chicagoland history Facebook group and follow us on Instagram for more from Chicago’s past.